What to do, what to do? I’ll admit, I’m bullish as hell on Texas in 2020. I’ve mentioned this diary I wrote in 2012 more than once, how Texas Democrats got to this point. But then I also wrote one last July called, “Texas: it is more than the Big Four.” Here is what I said:
So, what to do: Yes, campaign in the Big Four and canvas the heck out of Fort Worth to flip that county from Red to Blue. It has a high minority population, it just needs to vote. Next: Hidalgo (South Texas Border), El Paso , Cameron (STB), and Webb (Laredo -STB) Counties all need to turnout big. Those are heavily Democratic counties that don’t match the state’s turnout rate. Then Nueces (Corpus Christi) County needs to flip. It is a light pink county that again, would be blue if the voters turnout.
Guess what? That still is not enough! There are four suburban counties to watch on election night. Collin and Denton are suburban counties of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Williamson is a suburban county of Greater Austin. Hillary lost those three counties by a combined 140,000 votes. Those are highly educated counties that have to trend Democratic to win. Fort Bend is in Greater Houston and went for Hillary, but not down ballot. That is a very wealthy, ethnically diverse county that is a must win this year. So those four counties will set the stage for flipping Texas and a few House seats too.
Well, Beto carried Williamson by 6,000 thousand votes and Fort Bend by 30,000. Hillary lost Collin and Denton counties by about 120,000 votes. O’Rourke lost them by about 45,000 votes. As for Hidalgo, Cameron, Webb, and Nueces? None of them came close to matching statewide turnout. Cameron, with almost 207,000 Registered Voters turned out at 37.64%. There was also Hays County, that sits between San Antonio and Austin. Republican turnout between 16 and 18 went down 500 votes. Democratic votes went up 12,000 votes. That is suburban swing!
Oh, by the way, Beto O”Rourke flipped Tarrant County and carried it by 4,000 votes. Democrats lost it by 57,000 votes in 2016.
In 2014, a dreadful midterm year, Democrats cast 1.5 million votes in the 25 most populous counties. Republicans cast 1.8 million votes in those counties and the rest of the State buried Democrats. In 2016, those counties cast 3.3 million votes for Democrats and 3 million for Republicans. The rest of the State got Trump to his 9 point win. In 2018, a midterm, those 25 counties cast 3.4 million votes for O’Rourke and only 2.7 million for Cruz. The rest of the state got the margin to 2.9 point win for Cruz.
The question becomes: did Republicans sit down and not vote? There is some evidence that happened. Did some Republicans cross over and vote for Democrats? That may have happened too. But the movement was clearly in the big suburban counties. And where the work needs to be done is also clear.
I am not making an ideological argument. Clearly, contesting Congressional seats across the state helped. There were fights in suburban areas that were supposed to be safe that had the GOP sweating. What I am saying is simple: there was a concerted outreach to voters in Texas and we got results in many areas. We need to do that again and in areas that we show we didn’t do enough. El Paso, Cameron, Hidalgo, and Webb can’t be below state average. They can’t.
The fight is in Williamson, Fort Bend, Denton, and Collin Counties. It is in getting Harris County to turnout above the state average. But there are 38 Electoral Votes in Texas. That equals Ohio and Pennsylvania. It is more than Michigan and Ohio. Depending on the Census, Texas could gain three more Congressional Seats. That would mean 41 Electoral Votes in 2024. Texas is worth contesting.
Texas is the new Battleground. The suburbs are swinging! Texas is the Future!