Texas is not a one note state. The most populous counties in the state are majority-minority. Harris (Houston), Dallas (Dallas), Tarrant (Fort Worth), Bexar (San Antonio), and Travis (Austin) are the five largest in the state. The next five are: Collin (suburban Dallas), Hidalgo (Rio Grand Valley), El Paso (El Paso), Denton (suburban Dallas), and Fort Bend (suburban Houston). Together these ten counties make up over 16 million Texas residents.
In 2018, the margins for the GOP in Collin and Denton were slashed from 120,000 votes down to 45,000 votes. That told the tale of why Texas Democrats had good night in Nov 2018. That and Tarrant had a 61,000 vote swing from R to D allowing Beto O’Rourke to carry that county.
The real number though is turnout. Texas cast 8.96 million votes in 2016. Texas cast 8.37 million votes in 2018. However, turnout in Hidalgo and El Paso counties was under 50%.
Latino Decisions has a national Latino survey out. Texas has a large and young Latino population. (For the record I am a forty-something Latino in Houston. I am loath to use the term ‘middle aged’ though.) The breakdowns show that the Democratic Party must pay attention to Latinos if they want Latinos to vote for them.
I’m in Harris County. The game plan for 2020 has been in operation for months. Registration drives and volunteer recruitment have been ongoing. We know what needs to be done in the Houston area. We saw the results in 2018. We know where we can improve.
It is the rest of the state that needs, specifically the heavily Latino counties on the border, attention. All politics is local. Democrats have to make the case in those communities why 2020 matters so much.
That survey should be a warning sign to everyone. Pay attention to communities. Don’t take any group for granted. Latinos are the voting bloc that is increasing daily in Texas. 200,000 Latinos turn 18 every year in Texas and an overwhelming number of them are citizens. They have seen how the Administration treats Latinos. That turns them away from the GOP, but we need to reach out and tell them why Democratic policies matter to their daily lives.
How do we turn Texas Blue? Start there.