An interesting article published by POLITICO a couple of weeks ago focuses on how the rural vote was lower in this year’s special elections than previously, compared to suburban and urban turnout.
Here’s the article:
www.politico.com/…
This caught my attention because Republicans, especially Trump Republicans, are very popular in rural America.
If rural voters don’t turn out in the same percentages as those in more populous areas, it could impact how well Democrats and Republicans do in November. And it would not necessarily be reflected in polls since most pollsters use previous years’ election turnout models.
POLITICO suggested that Republicans could be hurt in November if the weak rural turnout in the special elections this year persisted into November. The article cites the Dobbs v. Jackson decision by the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade as a turning point. Up until then, turnout in urban, suburban and rural areas was similar.
While the drop-off in turnout by rural voters in this year’s special elections may not appear all that significant on the surface (22 percent rural vs. 27 percent), even a relatively small drop like the one seen, five percent, could make a difference.
In fact, in each of the special elections that saw decreased rural turnout this year, Democrats overperformed compared to President Biden’s performance, according to the article.
Whether the lack of voter enthusiasm in rural areas had anything directly to do with the Supreme Court decision is up for dispute, but at least one highly credible source cited, former Democratic Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, was quoted as saying that the end of abortion rights is turning off some rural voters.
So, if the rural vote continues to lag in November, that could be a wild card that helps Democrats.
And polling would not necessarily pick that up since most pollsters manipulate their polling results based on turnout by various groups in previous election cycles.
Of course, it’s quite possible that turnout from this year’s special elections may not necessarily replicate itself in November.
Another wild card that’s received a lot of attention is turnout by women and pro-choice voters. The Supreme Court’s dictate to overturn Roe v. Wade helped propel Democratic victories in special elections held since then. The key question now is whether that same momentum, or enough of that momentum, will carry through to November to make a difference.
Of course, we won’t know until after Nov. 8 exactly who will...and who will not...show up to vote.
Meanwhile, my personal approach to this November’s elections is to brace myself for the worst (as reflected in the drumbeat of the mainstream news media), while doing everything in my power to get Democrats to the polls and hope for the best.