(I’m sorry this entry is so long, but I don’t have time to write a short one.)
Yesterday I wrote that we shouldn’t worry too much about Trump attempting to steal the election and take dictatorial powers.
That was yesterday. Since then, new developments have made me reconsider. Trump fired four heads of the military and put Trump-worshipping cronies in charge as “acting” heads. However, worse than this, it looks like GOP legislatures are going to try to appoint different electors to the Electoral College, with instructions to defy the state’s popular will and vote for Trump anyway.
Because Trump is always as subtle as a chainsaw, we can literally see his plan taking shape. The good news: it will likely fail. The bad news is it still could succeed.
First of all, orders for a coup issued by Trump’s four stooges likely be disobeyed on the grounds that it’s illegal. Their appointments as “acting” heads could itself be refuted as illegal. Officers from junior grade on up take an oath. It resembles the president’s own oath but with more detail:
I ___, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God.
And here is the West Point Cadet Oath:
"I, (your name), do solemnly swear that I will support the Constitution of the United States, and bear true allegiance to the National Government; that I will maintain and defend the sovereignty of the United States, paramount to any and all allegiance, sovereignty, or fealty I may owe to any State or Country whatsoever; and that I will at all times obey the legal orders of my superior officers, and the Uniform Code of Military Justice.
If a senior officer or head of the department gives an order that undermines the Constitution, the junior ranks on down are obligated to disobey it. Our military people, unlike the president, take their oaths very seriously.
For states like Wisconsin that might try to defy the will of their people and send Electors to vote for Trump, this will likely also fail. It’s true that the Constitution does grant to the states the sole right of choosing electors and instructing them on how to vote, it’s doubtful the SCOTUS will allow the states to change their EC laws in the middle of the process. If the states hold a popular election specifically to determine their electors, they then can’t revoke that promise to their people after the popular votes are counted. I can’t see even the Conservative justices on the courts going for this, even Alito and Thomas.
By definition, coups are illegal actions. Anything we call a coup that’s done within the law, like Trump’s impeachment, is analogous to a coup, but not the Real McCoy. Trump will find himself stymied in any lawful action he or his supporters take to overturn this election.
Any real coup he tries, i.e. any illegal scheme to seize power, is dependent on people around him cooperating and enabling him. Power in human affairs is defined (basically) by how many people do your will or act in your favor. Knowing how Trump treats people, I’d believe most of his “loyal” staff are going to be slow-walking any order he gives, trying to run out the clock. They’ll probably move extra slow in overthrowing the government.
However, now that it’s so obvious Trump is attempting a coup, with the GOP backing him, his success is unlikely, but not impossible. History is full of improbable things.
What can we do to be more certain it doesn’t happen? People in the swing states where GOP legislatures might try to thwart the will of their people, should call, write, email their state reps and senators. They should demonstrate outside the building. They should tell their legislators in no uncertain terms that changing the state’s presidential vote will not be tolerated. They should even block the entrance to the building if such a change is in the works.
The rest of us should be ready to take to the streets and march to DC if Trump has the balls to attempt a coup against all law restraining him, and in the complete absence of election fraud.
If the states do try to change their votes, that should in the end, finally give our country an extra incentive to retire the Electoral College from our system.
But I digress, my message is we’re in a winning position: be on guard but don’t throw away hope or panic.