Attorney General William Barr’s letter of notification to Congress that the Mueller report has been submitted contains a hint that strongly suggests Mueller does not recommend indicting President Trump.
In the first paragraph, Barr notes that he must notify Congress if he feels that any proposed actions by the Special Counsel are “so inappropriate or unwarranted under established Departmental practices that it should not be pursued.” He goes on to note that there are no such instances. Ergo: either Mueller does not recommend indicting Trump, or he does does and Barr is going to go along with it.
I do not believe Barr would go along with an indictment of a sitting President Trump, so the most likely conclusion is that Mueller does not recommend indicting President Trump.
Even if I am right, it remains to be seen whether Mueller does not recommend indictment because of lack of evidence, or because he feels bound by the Watergate-era DOJ policy against indicting a sitting President.
If Mueller decided against indictment because he lacks sufficient evidence, expect that conclusion (and likely the full report) to be made public and trumpeted by Trump forces.
But if Mueller decided against indictment based on the DOJ policy against indictment of a sitting President, expect Barr to try to bury that conclusion behind his previously-stated position that nonindictable information must be kept private.