Yesterday, sourcing one anonymous U.S. official, Gordon Lubold and Jessica Donati at the Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump has ordered a reduction of American forces in Afghanistan, and that about half of the 14 thousand U.S. troops there will begin coming home “in the coming weeks.”
Later news media reporting has been less certain about the withdraw. Lolita Baldor at the Associated Press, for example, sourcing an anonymous U.S. official, says that no final plans have been made.
Frud Bezhan, at Radio Free Europe, uses a conditional clause, “if the withdrawal order reported by various U.S. media outlets, citing officials, is carried out”. He also points out the existence of 25 thousand private security contractors in Afghanistan, working for the Pentagon.
Barbara Starr and Jake Tapper, at CNN, sourcing two administration officials, say that Trump wants withdraw plans drawn up in hopes he could announce the drawdown in his State of the Union speech.
The BBC has it both ways, proclaiming in their headline a definite withdraw of roughly half of U.S. forces, but then immediately saying in the article text that the troops could go home, and that there is no official confirmation of a withdraw.
The United States and the Taliban currently seem much closer in negotiations towards a peace settlement, than they have ever been before. For example,
in an interview of U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, by Lotfullah Najafizada at Tolo News, Khalilzad mentions discussion of a substantive proposal from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, for a three month negotiation to include the Afghan government, with a ceasefire during these three months.
Expert opinion on Afghanistan, quoted in the news media, frequently stresses that a sudden and impetuous withdraw of U.S. forces throws a wrench in peace negotiations.
In recent months, however, there has been a renewed effort to make progress on peace talks with the Taliban. Officials now worry that any move to withdraw U.S. troops this year could dampen those prospects and simply encourage the Taliban to wait it out until they can take advantage of the gaps when the forces leave.
Large US troop pullout planned in Afghanistan, officials say, Lolita Baldor, Associated Press
"This makes no strategical sense, as it weakens the U.S.'s own position and that of its local ally, the Afghan government, in the midst of attempts to get a peace process going," says Thomas Ruttig, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, an independent think tank in Kabul.
Michael Kugelman, South Asia associate at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, says the timing of Trump's troop-withdrawal decision "is breathtakingly bad."
"Announcing a move like this now could squander the best chance to date to launch a peace process to end a war that has raged for far too long," says Kugelman, adding that Washington would lose a major bargaining chip in talks.
What Would A U.S. Troop Reduction In Afghanistan Mean?, Frud Bezhan, Radio Free Europe
A sudden and impetuous announcement of a possible withdraw of U.S. forces, inconsistently described, and going nowhere, would throw quite a wrench in peace negotiations as well.