The latest national poll from PPP:
PPP’s newest national poll finds the race on the Republican side tightening considerably in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise loss in Iowa on Monday night. Trump’s lead has fallen to just 4 points- he’s at 25% to 21% each for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, 11% for Ben Carson, 5% each for Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and the now departed Rand Paul, 3% each for Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, and 1% for Jim Gilmore. Rick Santorum had literally zero supporters on our final poll including him.
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On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 53/32. Sanders does keep gradually moving closer- our previous couple polls had her leading 56/28 in December and 59/26 in November. But he still has some weaknesses that may make it hard for him to catch up. Primary among these is African American voters- Clinton leads 82/8 with them and has a 79/9 favorability compared to 27/23 for Sanders. That does suggest some possibility for Sanders to improve his position- part of his problem is just that black voters don’t really know him yet- but he’s starting at a tremendous disadvantage that will make the upcoming run of Southern primaries very difficult for him.
Trump is down 9 points from last time (34 → 25) and his favorability drops from +24 to +7. Rubio is way up with a favorability rating of +43(!) [+15 to 64/21] — he is the golden boy peaking at the right time. (That spells trouble for us.) He also wins head-to-heads against Trump and Torquemada Ted.
Trump leads in the committed voters with 71%. Cruz is at 52% and Rubio is at 44%.
Clinton has the AA support that will help her in the Southern states. Sanders has a way to go there. Clinton leads 82 to 8.