I am inviting a lively discussion about what folks think the upcoming Supreme Court Marriage Equality ruling will be and if you would share why you believe this.
Will they?
1. Uphold the state marriage bans?
2. Will they mandate Nationwide Marriage equality and compel states to issue marriage licenses?
3. Will they simply invoke Full Faith and Credit, allowing states to define marriage as they see fit but requiring them to recognize and support all marriages from other states?
4. Some other option I have not considered?
My opinion and rationale below the fold.
Personally I think they will do #2, and make a sweeping decision, just like with Loving v Virginia and mandate Nationwide Marriage Equality.
Simply put, I firmly believe this as one who has closely watched the progress all the way since the 90's when Hawaii first opened the door and caused other states and the Federal Government to panic.
But more importantly when I look at the relatively recent flood of marriage bans being overturned by one Federal court after another after the (now infamous) Supreme Court ruling overturning DOMA, section 3 it seems clear to me.
The Supreme Court seemed happy to let these cases run their course and consistently denied cert right up until the 6th Federal court circuit went against the trend and upheld the marriage bans in their circuit, affecting Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and Tennessee. This forced the Supreme Court's hand and pretty much guaranteed that they would grant cert.
So essentially, they refused cert for as long as the lower Federal courts overturned the marriage bans, and they accepted review the second there was a split.
Let's remember that the Supreme Court also refused to extend the stay on the marriage rulings except in the Utah case which appeared to be only long enough for the 10th circuit to hear the appeal following the Federal District court ruling. (at least I don't recall any other stay granted by the Supreme Court, please correct me if I am missing one)
Finally, there is the fact that the vast majority of the population, at ~72% now live in states with Marriage Equality.
To me this indicates a clear intent on their part to overturn all of the remaining marriage bans and to make a sweeping decision for Nationwide Marriage Equality.
I would love to hear from others. A lively and friendly debate is always a good thing and I would truly like to see other opinions.
Let's face it, the Marriage Equality ruling will be one of the most important Supreme Court rulings of the decade, IMHO.