Two-term Senator Amy Klobuchar, D-MN
I believe Senator Amy Klobuchar will be our vice presidential nominee. I think there are numerous reasons to believe this, and even more reasons to want this to happen.
Before we get started, let's just say that this diary presumes Hillary Clinton will be our nominee for president. All of the arguments I will make are based on that assumption. Regardless of how you feel about Hillary, let's be honest with ourselves: She's heavily, heavily favored to be the nominee. Her poll numbers are basically those of an incumbent president. I don't want this diary to devolve into arguments about our presidential primary. This diary is about our vice presidential nominee, and I'd ask you to respect that. I daresay Amy Klobuchar will make a fine vice president for your preferred candidate as well, and some of the arguments I make will apply equally for O'Malley or whoever else you think should be our standard bearer.
1) She's a woman.
I'll be honest with you: I don't like identity politics. I think identity voting is generally more complicated than people believe. Whites will vote for blacks. Blacks will vote for whites. Women will vote for men. Gays will vote for straights. Ideology trumps identity except in marginal elections where a few percentage points will decide the election. Any time someone claims that cynical identity politics will win us an election, I sigh, I roll my eyes, I grab a rolling pin, and I smack them in the head. Metaphorically.
Why, then, do we want a two-woman ticket? Simple. Women deserve it. It emphasizes not only the historic nature of the candidacy, but more importantly the issues inherent to women. I'm talking reproductive rights at a time when abortion is being criminalized after just 20 weeks, and blatantly unconstitutional laws are written to satisfy the ids of men. I'm talking feminism, and a woman's right not to be harassed. I'm talking equal pay for equal work. I'm talking paid maternity leave. I'm talking rape in the workplace. Women need this.
Not only that, but feminism is inherently intersectional. To speak of feminism is to speak of black women, lesbian women, transgender women, disabled women, women who are senior citizens, and other groups who are dispossessed or vulnerable to an even greater degree.
Sen. Klobuchar has a long history in support of feminism, going back to her college days at Yale as a member of a feminist organization.
2) She has the experience.
As a two-term Senator, Sen. Klobuchar has the resume necessary to be a "heartbeat away" from the presidency. No one will question her legitimacy. Legitimate vice presidential picks are almost always senators or governors, with a few House members thrown in from time to time if they have significant seniority. Thus, by sheer weight of history, we will very likely be looking to our pool of current and recent former senators and governors for the vice presidency.
3) She helps to lock down a key geographical region.
Perhaps the most vulnerable part of our "Blue Wall" is the Great Lakes region. If I were to create a path to victory in 2016 as a Republican, I would take a leap and compete in the heavily-white states adjacent to and near the Great Lakes: Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Ohio.
This is the map:
Imagine this map.
Republicans win this map 271/267. Is this a plausible map? Yes, if our support among whites continues to crater. In fact, this is perhaps the second most plausible one for a Republican win in 2016. Most importantly, this map gives us
every swing state with a large minority population - in other words, it's the Obama coalition writ large, where we continue to lose ground with whites and continue to improve with minorities.
Let me be clear, though. Is this likely? No. In fact, I think the presidency is ours to lose. We simply have too strong an advantage in the electoral college. But IF A PATH EXISTS FOR REPUBLICANS, it lies either in the map before, or this one, which I consider most plausible:
Now imagine this map.
Republicans win this map 289/249. Again, however, the path to victory is through the Great Lakes. We are again dependent on the Obama coalition, but we keep Michigan and Minnesota as they're the bluest of the Great Lakes states outside of the impenetrable Illinois.
So, how does Klobuchar keep these states in our column? The answer is simple: She's from around there. She talks with the same funny accent. She has enormous appeal in her home state, and with rural midwestern whites who have slipped from our grasp in recent elections. She massively outperformed Obama in 2012, taking all but just two counties in the state during her reelection campaign.
4) She helps us downballot.
As it reinforces point #3, let's talk about our situation in the Great Lakes. Needless to say, our congressional delegations in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have been shattered due to the gerrymanders put in place by Republican legislatures. Let's talk about these delegations:
Wisconsin is a 5R-3D delegation.
Ohio is a 12R-4D delegation.
Michigan is a 9R-5D delegation.
Pennsylvania is a 13R-5D delegation.
In Wisconsin, two seats could be up for grabs: WI-07 and WI-08. These are both rural-ish districts which held Democrats prior to being stolen by Republicans in 2010.
In Ohio, potential wave-bait seats would be OH-06, OH-07, OH-10, OH-14, and OH-16.
In Michigan, vulnerable seats include MI-01, MI-07, and MI-11.
In Pennsylvania, we might look at targeting PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, and maybe PA-15.
There is even room to grow in Minnesota, where two light-red seats are held by strong Republican incumbents: MN-02 and MN-03.
The point being? Many strange creatures float to the surface during a tidal wave, and running up the score in these critical states is instrumental in sending them back to the red lagoon. Thus, if Sen. Klobuchar is able to give us a significantly larger margin in these states simply through her geographical appeal, it could also give Hillary a Democratic congress to work with for her first two years.
And while I won't go into detail, we also have several Republican senators up for reelection at this time in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Wisconsin, and an open seat in somewhat culturally distinct Indiana. Helping us take these seats would be a great way to take back the senate and provide us with a cushion for 2018, which is sure to be rough.
5) She won't give up a red or swing seat.
We're terrible at special elections and most states have Republican governors. Minnesota is a very Democratic state and we have a strong bench, plus we have a Democrat in the governor's seat. It's likely that Governor Mark Dayton would appoint Congressman Tim Walz to the vacant seat, and he would run in a special election and almost certainly win. Thus, if Sen. Klobuchar is selected for vice president, we won't be giving up a gubernatorial or senate seat.
6) She's great on non-feminist issues as well.
She's skeptical about free trade, having opposed CAFTA. She's excellent on the environment. She favors raising the payroll tax cap. She supports immigration reform. She supports voting rights. She's very anti-war, including with Iran. Further information here: http://www.ontheissues.org/...
There! That's six reasons why I think Minnesota's senior senator should be our next vice president. I'm sure there are things you'll find in her record that you don't like - I think that's true of everyone. I'm sure there are many, many other candidates, including people of color, who may be legitimate contenders. However, I think Amy Klobuchar is the best, and also the most likely.
Regrettably there are no obvious women of color who could be a legitimate vice presidential pick. Thus, we would go back to having an all-white ticket. That's unfortunate, but one thing I guarantee is that this won't last forever. The new senator from California will almost certainly be Kamala Harris, a black/Asian woman who will certainly be courted to run in 2024. Representative Donna Edwards is running to replace Barbara Mikulski in Maryland, and she is a black woman. If she can fend off a primary challenge from well-connected congressman Chris Van Hollen (a white male), she would be near-guaranteed to win the seat. Representative Tammy Duckworth is also going to kick Mark Kirk to the curb in Illinois, and she is a woman of Asian descent. Catherine Cortez Masto is a Latina running in Nevada to replace Harry Reid and is likely to be favored against the Republicans most likely to run. The future is bright for women of color in political office, but they must first win their elections in 2016, and therefore they cannot be contenders for the vice presidency.
That said, a two-woman ticket, even if it is all-white, would be a radical move on Hillary's part. Such a ticket would move America's treatment of women into the 21st century and bring to light the many prejudices faced by women even today - not just here in America, but throughout the world. We stand a chance at having a doubly historic ticket with two Democratic women, one of whom is indisputably a progressive.
... And that's why I think Hillary will make Sen. Klobuchar her pick for VP. It is a bold move at a time when Hillary needs bold statements to make herself seem even more presidential. Sen. Klobuchar helps us electorally in several different respects. She is also a good way to burnish Hillary's progressive credentials and turn back whatever dissatisfaction may be left in the party from the divisive 2008 campaign. She's just an excellent choice all-round, which cannot be said of many folks.
I encourage the Clinton campaign to take a very hard look at Senator Amy Klobuchar for the Vice Presidency.