Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte may need to watch out for an old primary rival
Leading Off:
• NH-Sen: Back in 2010, tea partier Ovide Lamontagne very nearly joined the ranks of nutter Senate nominees Republicans wished they weren't stuck with (like Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle) when he almost upset Kelly Ayotte in that year's GOP primary in New Hampshire. Ayotte, the undisputed establishment choice, scraped by with a super-thin 38-37 victory, then powered on to a huge 60-37 win against Democrat Paul Hodes in November. Given how badly Hodes performed, Lamontagne likely would have won anyway, but that doesn't mean he isn't capable of causing trouble for his own party.
In fact, just a few weeks ago, James Pindell reported that Lamontagne "has not ruled out a primary challenge to Ayotte," and boy would that be fun. Throughout her four-year tenure, Ayotte has generally behaved as though she recognizes the challenges of getting re-elected in a swing state, which means she's made herself vulnerable on her right flank. (She's earned conservative ire for supporting immigration reform, for instance, and lately she's been trying to moderate her voting record on environmental issues.)
A Lamontagne-Ayotte fight would offer up some glorious cat fud, and it could only damage GOP chances of hold this seat next year, especially if popular Gov. Maggie Hassan runs for the Democrats. Team Blue can only hope.
1Q Fundraising:
• MO-Gov:
John Brunner (R): $140,000 raised (in six days)
• IL-13: Rodney Davis (R-inc): $400,000 cash-on-hand
• IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D-inc): $387,000 raised, $418,000 cash-on-hand
• MD-04: Glenn Ivey (D): $117,000 raised (in 20 days)
• PA-08: Shaughnessy Naughton (D): $140,000 raised (in 27 days)
• TN-04: Grant Starrett (R): $504,000 cash-on-hand (includes $250,000 in self-funding)
• WI-01: Paul Ryan (R-inc): $828,800 raised
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: Democrats have talked about putting this seat into play, especially if John McCain is forced into a damaging primary. But no one serious has given any indication that they're looking at running so far, and it doesn't help that McCain's chances of winning renomination are looking better now that Reps. Matt Salmon and David Schweikert aren't doing anything to challenge him.
Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Kyrsten Sinema have earned the most attention from national and state Democrats, but neither looks like they're chomping at the bit to run. However, party sources tell Roll Call's Alexis Levinson that both members are waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court to decide on the fate of the state's congressional map this summer. If the Supreme Court invalidates the current district lines, the Republican-led state legislature will be able to draw their own map, and they'll do whatever they can to unseat Kirkpatrick and Sinema. If either House member finds herself in a nasty district, the prospect of campaigning for the Senate will suddenly look a lot more appealing.
There are a few other options for the DSCC, though they're likely to wait and see what Kirkpatrick and Sinema do. Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona ran a credible race in 2012 against Jeff Flake, and last year he made it clear he was still interested in elected office. Businesswoman Nan Walden is another possible contender, though she's also being touted for the 2nd District. Neither Carmona or Walden has said anything about their plans, and they probably won't until the Supreme Court ends the uncertainty.
• CT-Sen: We can keep those "Rob Simmons for Senate" t-shirts in the attic. There was some brief speculation that the former congressman, who lost the GOP nomination here in 2010, would challenge Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal. However, Simmons quickly ruled it out. He does earn points for honesty, saying, "[o]ur opportunity to win that seat was back in 2010. We blew it," rather than the usual "I just don't think now is the right time" boilerplate.
• IN-Sen: For the first time, Rep. Jackie Walorski has publicly expressed some interest in seeking retiring Sen. Dan Coats' Senate seat, saying she and her husband would "take a couple of weeks" to "pray about it and just kind of do our due diligence." Walorski joins several fellow Republican members of the House who are looking at bids, including Reps. Todd Young, Todd Rokita, Marlin Stutzman, and Susan Brooks. A host of others are also considering, but so far, the only candidate to enter is Eric Holcomb, a former aide to Coats.
• OH-Sen: Now that Ted Strickland has released his first fundraising report, the tea-leaf reading can begin in earnest. Strickland reported raising $671,000 in his first 35 days and says he has a thrifty $649,000 on hand. On the one hand, his total haul is smaller than that of his pesky Democratic primary, Cincinnati City Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld, who pulled in $750,000. On the other hand, Sittenfeld has been running since January. On still another hand, Sittenfeld is totally unknown while Strickland is a former governor, so by all rights he should be able to raise much more money, and $671,000 doesn't feel knock-your-lights-out dominant.
But (since we're obviously dealing with multi-limbed space alien with a fondness for earthling tea) on one more hand, if you pro-rated Strickland's total, we'd be talking about something like $2 million for the quarter, which would be huge. Of course, it's not really fair to extrapolate in quite that way, but the real question is whether this is all the low-hanging fruit that Strickland, now out of office for over four years, was able to pick, or whether he's just starting to ramp up. One positive sign: Strickland says that $470,000 came in during just the final two weeks of the quarter.
Still, it's doubtful this will be enough to finally push out Sittenfeld, who's only been digging in deeper lately, so some Ohio Democrats are reportedly trying another tactic: getting the state party to officially endorse Strickland. The party's executive committee is set to meet this Saturday, and it sounds very possible that it will give its formal backing to Strickland then. But if endorsements for Strickland from Sherrod Brown and Bill Clinton didn't scare off Sittenfeld, will the ODP's really help?
• UT-Sen: In the unlikely event that ex-Rep. Jim Matheson were to seek a political comeback via a Senate bid, victory would be, well, unlikely—at least, according to a new Dan Jones & Associates poll for UtahPolicy.com. The survey finds GOP Sen. Mike Lee leading Matheson 48-42, which is actually not all that bad for the Democrat, given that we're talking about ultra-conservative Utah. But it's not very good, either, since it doesn't point to much of a path to victory. Seeing as Matheson took a job as a lobbyist earlier this year, though, he's probably not considering a return seriously, if at all.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov, AG: Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy hasn't appeared interested in running for governor for a while, and on Thursday, he announced he would seek re-election instead. Kennedy also had his eye on the attorney general contest, where incumbent Buddy Caldwell is currently facing fellow Republican and ex-Rep. Jeff Landry, but it is not to be.
Meanwhile, Sen. David Vitter continues to look like the clear favorite to succeed Gov. Bobby Jindal in this year's contest, and the endorsements are continuing to come his way. Jeb Bush is the latest to back Vitter; his father former President George H.W. Bush also announced he would support Vitter in February.
House:
• CA-24: Democratic Rep. Lois Capps only announced her retirement on Wednesday, but candidates are already lining up to replace her. On the Democratic side, Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal and Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider are both in. Political operative Laura Capps, the congresswoman's daughter, hasn't made her intentions clear, but she seems likely to jump in as well. If the younger Capps surprises us and stays out, Assemblyman Das Williams is a potential candidate, but the Sacramento Bee says he's unlikely to challenge her.
On the GOP side, 2014 candidate and businessman Justin Fareed currently has the field to himself. However, Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian says he's thinking about it, and he'd emerge as the national party favorite if he goes for the gold. Tea partier Chris Mitchum, who came shockingly close to winning this seat in 2014, is also a possibility. Santa Barbara Councilor Dale Francisco, who also ran in 2014, could also try again, though like Mitchum, he hasn't said anything publicly. However, former state Sen. Sam Blakeslee doesn't sound interested in a comeback.
Obama won this coastal seat 54-43, and Democrats start out favored to keep it, though Achadjian could make things interesting. However, if enough Democrats run in the top-two primary, there's the uncomfortable possibility that two Republicans can slip through. It's no secret that Democratic turnout disproportionality drops in primaries, making it much more likely that it will be Team Blue that gets locked out than the GOP. Right now, it's far too early to know if enough Democrats will be on the primary ballot to put the seat at risk, or if enough Republicans will run to mitigate the threat, but it's something to be on guard for.
• MS-01: The insanely crowded May 12 jungle-primary isn't too far away, and the ads are going up. Attorney Greg Pirkle, who like almost all his opponents is a Republican, has a cute introductory spot where various people try to say "Pick Pirkle," and get tongue-twisted. There's no word on the size of the buy.
• NJ-05: Republican Scott Garrett has been an elusive Democratic target in his Romney 51-48 seat. Democrat Josh Gottheimer, a businessman and former advisor to both Bill and Hillary Clinton, has also talked about running and recently filed paperwork to set up a campaign, though he hasn't announced anything. However, another local Democrat is considering taking on Garrett as well. Paramus Mayor Richard LaBarbiera tells PolitickerNJ that he's interested, and is already stressing his business-friendly background. While Paramus isn't a particularly large place (population 26,000), Romney won it 50-49, so LaBarbiera has some experience prevailing in the type of area he'd need to win in.
• TN-03: Republican Rep. Chuck Fleischmann just cannot catch a break. Fleischmann beat primary challenger Weston Wamp only 51-49 in 2014, two years after winning renomination with only 39 percent of the vote. Wamp doesn't sound interested in a third try this cycle, telling the Chattanooga Times Free Press that while he plans to run for Congress again, he's unlikely to do it in 2016 now that he has a new son. But state Sen. Bo Watson has acknowledged that he is looking at challenging Fleischmann in this safely red East Tennessee seat.
Watson is close to Senate Speaker Ron Ramsey, so he should have the connections to make this a real race. Watson also isn't up for re-election until 2018, so he wouldn't need to sacrifice his seat to run. Watson's seat includes about 60 percent of Hamilton County, which cast 43 percent of the primary vote last time and where Fleischmann only narrowly won, and he can definitely cause problems if he can run up the score there. However, Watson will need to get his name-recognition up in the district's other 10 counties.
It's always been a bit unclear why Fleischmann has had such a difficult time holding onto his seat. The congressman hasn't taken any votes that should put him at odds with his district, and he hasn't been seriously accused of doing anything scandalous. It's likely that a bit of tribalism is at work here. Fleischmann is a social conservative who is close to Mike Huckabee's political network, while Wamp was more of a business conservative who was able to raise money from more like-minded types.
Still, it doesn't fully explain why primary voters were prepared to boot Fleischmann last time and were so lukewarm to him in 2012. Maybe Fleischmann will grow on his constituents, or Wamp's name recognition (his father was a congressman here) gave him an edge that Watson can't easily replicate. But it's possible that there's just something about Fleischmann that turns people off.
• VA-10: This light red Northern Virginia seat was the source of a major Democratic heartbreak last year. Team Blue was optimistic that well-funded Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust could flip this seat after longtime incumbent Frank Wolf retired, but Foust ended up losing to Barbara Comstock by a brutal 57-40 margin. The DCCC is determined to go after Comstock before she can before entrenched, and there's a chance that an ongoing lawsuit will end with this district being redrawn into something more friendly. Still, no one's under the illusion that it will be easy to beat Comstock, a skilled and well-connected former political operative.
Over at Roll Call, Simone Pathe takes a look at who might carry the blue banner this time. State Sen. Jennifer Wexton, who easily won an expensive special election last year, is getting plenty of attention from both sides. Wexton only said that she's "focused on the 33rd District," when she was asked about her 2016 plans, which is of course not a no. Wexton needs to win re-election this year against former HUD official Stephen Hollingshead, who ran an underfunded campaign against Comstock last year, but her Obama 59-39 Senate seat isn't on the state GOP's target list.
Democrats are also looking at Del. Kathleen Murphy, a former congressional staffer and Commerce Department official. Murphy came very close to beating Comstock in a 2013 delegate race, and she narrowly won the swing seat against wealthy businessman Craig Parisot in January. Murphy told Roll Call that she has "no plans to run for Congress," and is focusing on her seat "right now," which is also not a no. If Murphy is interested in challenging Comstock again, it does make sense for her to keep her plans quiet. Murphy is facing a rematch with Parisot, and she can't afford to look like she's only using her delegate seat as a stepping-stone to Congress.
One other potential recruit is Cathleen Magennis Wyatt, who runs a nonprofit devoted to regional history and served in Gov. Douglas Wilder's cabinet over two decades ago. Wyatt hasn't said anything publicly about her intentions; while she doesn't have the campaign experience Wexton and Murphy have, she won't need to worry about running for re-election this year and could probably start raising money earlier. But there are two names we can cross off: Commonwealth Democrats say Foust isn't interested in trying again, and Leesburg Mayor Kristen Umstattd made it clear that she isn't going to run either.
Other Races:
• Memphis Mayor: The Oct. 8 race to face Mayor A C Wharton, who is vulnerable in large part due to the city's crime rate, just keeps getting bigger and bigger. Councilor Harold Collins is the latest to jump in, and he enters with a few endorsements from local power players. However, Collins will need to raise money quickly if he wants to match financial frontrunners Wharton and Councilor Jim Strickland. Also running are Shelby County Commission Chairman Justin Ford; former University of Memphis basketball player Detric Golden; former Commissioner James Harvey; and Memphis Police Association President Mike Williams.
• Toledo Mayor: A special election will be held this November to fill the last two years of deceased Mayor Michael Collins' term, and things are beginning to take shape. Interim Mayor Paula Hicks-Hudson has decided to run for the seat, and she's been consolidating Democratic support. In March, county Treasurer Wade Kapszukiewicz announced he would back her instead of running himself, and Hicks-Hudson has also won the endorsement of the county Democratic Party.
While the contest is officially non-partisan, Democrats are usually favored in Toledo. Back in 2013, Team Blue lost their chance to retake the mayor's office after two Democrats split the primary vote and allowed Collins and fellow independent Mayor Mike Bell to advance to the general, but it looks Hicks-Hudson will have a clear path to November. However, Collins' widow Sandy Drabik and Councilor Theresa Gabriel are both considering running as independents, so we could still see an interesting race here.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: Pew Research has another interesting in-depth look at a small slice of the population; usually, when you think of "African-Americans," you think of people whose ancestors have been here for centuries (even if those ancestors didn't come here voluntarily), and when you think of "immigrants," you think of Hispanics or Asians. However, as Pew points out, an increasingly large share of blacks are also immigrants.
Foreign-born persons are now 8.7 percent of the black population, which is nearly triple the rate from 1980; the Census projects that'll be up to 16.5 percent by 2060. And foreign-born persons are a significant portion of the black population in certain metro areas (34 percent in Miami; 28 percent in New York City). The bulk of the immigration is from the Caribbean (18 percent from Jamaica and 15 from Haiti), but immigration from Africa is also becoming more common (with Nigeria and Ethiopia next on the list). If you do the math, that means nearly 1 percent of the nation's population is now both "African-American" and "immigrant," forcing us to question our senses of both words as the American mosaic gets even more complicated.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.