This may be the counting-your-chickens-before-they-hatch edition of filibuster reform, but at the same time could there be a better window of opportunity to bring it up to Harry Reid and the party leadership? We have some possibility of holding the Senate in 2014. I am less optimistic than some here but while the odds are slim they are real. Moreover, it will be very long odds for the Republicans to hold or win the Senate in 2016.
America has been supporting Democratic control of that body for 8 years so far. Consider the still head-spinning addition of two Democratic seats in the 2012 election cycle where our holding it at all was nearly as much of a long-shot fight as this year is. And now in 2014, against what could have been a certain GOP wave into that house, we find our defenses strong enough that winning control of the Senate is still nearly a toss up. At worst they will only have a slight majority; it will not be a rout.
And in 2016 chickens which have already hatched will come home to roost from the 2010 elections. That is when the Republicans find themselves in our boat where they must defend upwards of a dozen currently GOP held seats in swing or blue leaning states which broke for Obama since then. And some of which also have been going more blue in their state houses and governor's mansions since 2010. While in 2016 we will have, at this time, at most a couple of vulnerable Senate seats which they might take from us. In addition if the presidential elections were held today, assuming Hillary Clinton runs, we would control the White House and that brings coattails. Even without her running their presidential roster is still unremarkable.
In other words if we can hold the Senate again this year we will pretty much control it for at least a 4 year span. Thanks to pressure from progressive Democrats Harry Reid already took one small step towards filibuster reform. Now, may I suggest that the iron is hot and that this is the time to gear up on a campaign to demand much further filibuster reforms? I think it is. Jump below the orange squiggle for a wrap up.
Democrats, progressive and otherwise, are going out of our way to defend the Senate this year. And of course we will continue to do so. However, shouldn't we provide a conditional request for over and above support? The DSCC has certainly been asking for it. If we were able to get some assurances of continued filibuster reform, wouldn't we fight even harder for it? And wouldn't that little bit extra be really important especially to beleaguered Democratic members of the Senate fighting to hold on to their jobs? To the DSCC which wrings its hands in email funding requests about the impending dooooom?!?
This is the time to bring up the issue and to ask the leadership to go over and above when they are asking us to do the same thing. Even if we lose, and if they agree to it, we can still hold it as something they were willing to do this time around and should still be a valid point when the 2016 campaign is in full swing.
The Republicans also know that a 2014 win is likely to be short lived. They are unlikely to make any reforms to the filibuster if they win because the odds are pretty good that they will be the minority again in two years. Nor do I know of similar pressure from outside the Senate for them to reform the filibuster as there is on our side.
If we squeak by and continue to control the Senate, with filibuster reform making it a much rarer thing, not business as usual, Obama and the Senate could put much greater pressure on the House to make compromises. As it is now, only a paltry amount of potential Democratic vision and potential legislation ever sees the light of day. The general public still doesn't really have an idea of what a liberal overhaul of our government would look like because the Republicans can duck most of it as they don't bring Democratic bills to a vote in the House and too many die in the Senate because of the filibuster. We could make our case to the American people much more clearly if the House of Representatives had to consider a full palette of Democratic reforms. And perhaps go on record for voting against them. And if we can take back the House in 2016 and the presidency, those reforms might become reality. On steroids.
I say we have nothing to lose by starting to organize and present a request for comprehensive filibuster reform before the month is over. The pressure on Harry Reid and the rest of the Senate will not be stronger for years and we shoot ourselves in the foot by not starting to insist on it at this time. To use it as leverage for progressive politics and for our party, and in the end, for the country by returning the Senate to a more democratic body as it was meant to be.