I was just looking over David Jarman's most excellent diary on Florida's redistribution, and it seems to me that the Republicans may have made a bad mistake. The district breakdown indicates the following patterns:
(1) A few deep-blue districts.
(2) A few deep-red districts.
(3) A great many red-tinged, difficult but winnable districts.
Basically, this is what is generally known as a "dummymander": a situation where the governing party attempts a gerrymander, but in their haste to maximise their legislative numbers, inadvertantly creates a situation whereby the opposition later finds it easy to pick up a number of seats that begin the period as belonging to the majority, due mostly to a change in demographics.
Basically, dummymanders leave the majority with a lot of low-hanging political fruit currenty in it's possession, and the fruit will just get lower and lower for the opposition over time.
(more below the fold):
The GOP is particularly susceptible to these, for two reasons:
First, their natural greed for power means that they'll take any opportunity to maximise their own numbers in the short term, even at the expense of long-term political safety.
Second, a lot of the GOP voting base is older, and as demographics shift, they tend to lose out, as GOP-leaning older voters are replaced by Dem-leaning younger voters.
In Florida, a third reason applies. While the point has been made that the Cuban-American community (Florida's largest Hispanic US community) has little to nothing in common with other Hispanic US communities, the growing perception that the GOP is the White Man's Party must eventually take a toll on Republican support from the Cuban-American community. Especially as the last generation of Cuban-Americans that actually gives a ** about Castro starts to die off, and their kids and grandkids look at issues in a more pragmatic fashion.
For these reasons, I have identified 11 of the new Floridian Congressional Districts that are either open or held by Republicans that are within varying degrees of reachable for Team Blue (10 listed here, plus the open 9th CD, which should be a slam-dunk for Team Blue at PVI D+9):
(1) FL-06 (PVI:R+6). This open district is by no means easy terrain for Team Blue, but a first-class ground operation and a good candidate may flip it blue. Particuarly since the lack of anything resembling a natural Republican incumbent may mean a nasty primary on the GOP side.
(2) FL-07 (PVI:R+3). A 49/50 Obama/McCain district, this has excellent potential to flip, especially if the two GOP incumbents drawn into it go after each other in a primary and the Democrats put some resources and legwork into it.
(3) FL-10 (PVI:R+5). This, at 47/52 Obama/McCain, isn't as low-hanging fruit as the 7th district is. But it's still reachable, especially if DWS finds a strong candidate to run here.
(4) FL-12 (PVI:R+5). Much like the 10th district, the 12th is reachable but difficult.
(5) FL-13 (PVI:R+0.5). At 51/47 Obama/McCain, this is a PVI+0 district, and thus is easily winnable - especially given Bill Young's age and low profile, as well as the fact that he appears to have been written out of some of the more Republican areas of his old district (old PVI:R+1). People have been speculating about Young's retirement since about 2000, and he's been in there for 40 years. Time to send him home to enjoy his last decade or so of life in peace & quiet.
(6) FL-15 (PVI:R+6). This, like the 10th and 12th districts, is difficult but not unwinnable terrain for Team Blue. The situation is helped by the fact that Ross was written out of nearly half of his constituents, and thus loses some of his incumbent advantages.
(7) FL-16 (PVI:R+4). This belongs in the same "low-hanging fruit" basket as does the 7th district. It's made slightly harder than the 7th, due to the fact that Buchanan was able to keep virtually all of his old constituents.
(8) FL-18 (PVI:R+1). The redrawn 18th should be a Democratic district. It went for Obama in 2008, and Team Blue should be able to make sure that Allan West is succeeded by a Democrat here. If West were the candidate, it'd be easy, as his brand of craziness wouldn't endear him to this swing seat's voters, but as it is, the DCCC will just have to work to get it.
(9) FL-25 (PVI:R+6.5). This is a bit harder to reach than the 10th, 12th and 15th districts, but not impossible, especially if the Democrats can undercut Diaz-Balart's identity politics. The fact that Diaz-Balart was drawn out of about half of his old district may make this easier.
(10) FL-27 (PVI:R+3.5). This seat is a definite opportunity, at 49/51 Obama/McCain. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen isn't all that bad on some issues (especially as Republicans go), but the district would still be better served by someone who doesn't obsess about changing Cuba's government.
Here is how I've broken them down, in terms of just how reachable they are for the Florida Democrats:
Top tier - these seats should belong to the Democrats:
FL-09, FL-13, FL-18.
Second tier - these seats are neutral or only very slightly Republican-leanding, and a good candidate should be able to win here and make themselves moderately secure simply by being a good Representative. Even if Team Blue fails in 2012, building a good ground support structure here will help in later races as demographics shift:
FL-07, FL-16, FL-27.
Third tier - not naturally easy terrain for the Democrats, Team Blue needs to put in a good Florida-wide operation to give candidates here a tailwind, but these are certainly winnable, especially for a moderate Democrat (i.e., something between Nancy Pelosi and a Blue Dog) As above, even a failed campaign could do some good here, setting the stage for a later victory:
FL-10, FL-12, FL-15.
Bottom tier - these seats naturally lean Republican, and a Democratic candidate will not only have to win once, but will have to fight hard to keep their job here every election cycle. However, even a small Democratic tailwind can make a lot of difference here, and a Democratic ground operation can help statewide candidates in these areas:
FL-02 (see the edit below), FL-06, FL-25.
Overall, I can see - assuming President Obama wins Florida and generates at least a minimal coat-tail for downticket Democrats to ride upon - between 3 and 9 pickups for Team Blue realistically happening. Which would certainly make it easier to make Nancy Pelosi the once and future Speaker of the House (Most effective, best damn Speaker there was for decades!).
Advice for Team Blue? Speaking all the way from Australia, there are two pieces of advice that I could give to Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, were she (or one of her staffers) to read this diary:
(1) Build up a huge ground operation in Florida. There's lots of low-hanging fruit here, and it could be argued that the path back to a Democratic House majority leads through Florida. Don't just stop at campaign volunteers and the like - start grooming a generation of strong candidates from the ground up at both the State and Federal levels, in order to turn Florida blue for a generation to come.
(2) Talk to Team Obama. A strong showing by the President here could generate a very nice coattail effect for downticket Democrats, virtually guaranteeing the re-election of Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) and boosting House candidates' prospects across the board. Not to mention giving Obama those 29 sweet, sweet Electoral College votes - and sending a message to Governor Skeletor that his days are numbered.
EDIT: Following matching mole's comment, below, I have added FL-02 to the list of winnable districts. It's PVI is R+6, and Steve Southerland rode the 2010 red wave to victory over the 7-term Democratic incumbent, Allan Boyd. I doubt it's in reach in 2012 (the PVI is a bit too high, and Southerland kept 91% of his old district), but setting up a good ground operation here could help in later cycles in the decade. It's going into the lowest tier.