I imagine everyone has a theory about why Scott Walker is Wisconsin's governor, but there is one simple reason for it: Democrats don't vote, Republicans do.
A quick investigation into election totals and voter turnout is all that's necessary to prove that point.
I'm going to compare the 2008 November election to the 2010 November election in WI and WA State, and to the WI 2011 April election for WI Supreme Court. Perhaps that's already raising a red flag, because with Obama as a candidate, voters were more energized and turnout was much higher, right?
Not really. In WI, turnout was 3% higher in 2004 for John Kerry than for Obama in 2008. In WA, 2008 turnout was 2.3% higher than 2004 turnout.
Wasn't 2010 the year everybody stayed home? Not everybody. From the WI turnout link above, you'll find that after 1970, only 2006 (50.9%) had higher turnout than 2008 (49.7%). Similarly, in the recent WI SC election, turnout (at around 40%) was about double the highest turnout for a non-partisan spring election this century.
But who turned out is more important than turnout numbers. Here are some WI election results:
2008: President Obama - 1,677,211 McCain - 1,262,393
2010 Governor: Barrett - 1,004,303 Walker - 1,128,941
2010 Senate: Feingold - 1,020,958 Johnson - 1,125,999
2011 Supreme Court: Kloppenburg - 740.090 Prosser - 739,886
links omitted - results are WI GAB numbers except 2011, which are AP numbers
no Senate or Governor election in 2008
Read down the left column first - about 40% fewer Dems voted for Barrett and Feingold than for Obama; Kloppenburg got 56% fewer votes than Obama. Now read down the right column - only 11% fewer Republicans voted for Walker or Johnson than for McCain. Even though 41% fewer Republicans voted for Prosser, that was a drop of about half-a-million votes in the R column versus a decline of over 900 thousand votes in the D column.
That's why Walker is governor, Feingold is no longer in the Senate, and Prosser may return to the Supreme Court. Just 10% more of Obama voters voting in 2010 or 2011 would have won it for the Dems in every case, even with Waukesha County voter fraud.
Now consider WA State:
2008: President Obama - 1,750,848 McCain - 1,229,216
2010 Senate: Murray - 1,314,930 Rossi - 1,196.214
links omitted - results are from WA State Secretary of State
no Senate election in WA in 2008, no governor election in 2010
Once again, the Republican in 2010 drew almost the same number of votes as in the Presidential election in 2008, but Patty Murray only lost about 436,000 votes, where Feingold lost nearly 677,000, each starting from a roughly equal base of 2008 Presidential election votes.
One of biggest differences between WA and WI is, in fact, voter turnout. WA has over 80% turnout in presidential years and over 70% in off-years - better than WI at it's best. WI is normally under 70% in presidential years, and in the 40% range off-years. WA has a Democratic governor, two Democratic Senators - one re-elected in 2010 - and a Dem controlled legislature. Out of that list, WI has one retiring Dem Senator at the moment - the GOP holds everything else.
And that's because WI Democratic voters don't turn out.
To anyone who's taken a Political Science course, especially on party politics, in the last 100 years, this isn't news. More people have usually identified as Dems (although in recent years, that's varied), more people agree with Democratic policy positions (the ones in the platform, the progressive ones), but more Republicans vote more consistently.
This isn't about the Koch Brothers or Citizens United, it isn't about candidates or negative advertising - Kerry, the poorer and more villified candidate drew more voters to the polls in WI than Obama facing an underfinanced McCain - it isn't about policy or issues, it isn't about swing voters, it isn't about Fox News or talk radio. It's about the fact that Democrats don't vote.
This also isn't about minorities, as one person has suggested to me. WA has more minority voters than WI, although a greater percentage of Hispanics than African-Americans - in WI the proportions are roughly equal. There are only 333,000 African-Americans in WI of any age - far fewer than the 677,000 or 930,000 who voted for Obama but not in 2010 or 2011. Adding all Hispanics to that number still doesn't get to 677,000 voters, much less the over 930,000 who didn't show for Kloppenburg.
Of course the voters in each column above aren't necessarily the same voters year over year, but the GOP numbers show remarkable consistency (and unfortunately the Dem numbers show a different consistency - lower). Nor is this true in every state - it won't apply as much in UT or WY, but it will apply in most of the populous states.
The fact is that most people - about 60% to 70% of the national voting population - don't really like or agree with Republicans much at all. But they don't show up and vote. Close elections? Because Democrats don't vote. Election fraud? Because Democrats don't vote. The US on the road to feudalism or banana republic status? Can you guess the reason?
A site where people complain that there aren't 60 Democratic votes in the Senate, or complain that the GOP controls the House, or complain about Republican governors and legislatures, or just want to elect more and better Democrats, probably should start talking about creative ways to get more - many more - Democrats to vote in every election.
As we've learned in WI (and OH, IN, NJ, FL, ME ...), or in Congress the past 3 years, more than just electing a President matters.