Iranian leaders have just announced successful efforts to enrich uranium--the first step in obtaining nuclear weapons.
How can this present anything but a no-win situation for Bush and the White House "Iran-Syrian War Marketing Board"?
Ignore it, you lose your national security creds at home. Conventional strike, you are drawn into another quagmire at a time you cannot afford it. Tactical nuclear strike, even Tony Blair will turn on you, and the potential reaction by world opinion would be guaranteed send the US into an economic freefall.
Can Bush use a confrontation with Iran to bolster his standing in domestic opinion? Absolutely not, and only a fool would think that he could.
The proposition that heavy bombing of Iran could provoke an uprising (as reported by Sy Hersh) is about as credible as "we will be greeted as liberators" turned out to be in Iraq. More likely is that such a strike would turn moderate opinion in Iran against the West, and could even be sufficient provocation to motivate Iranians to open up a new front in the Iraq war.
How about a surgical conventional strike on the nuclear facilities? Well, it would have to be undeniably successful the first time, since claims by the Iranian to the tune of "Ha, ha, you missed!" could gain traction at home given the administration's track record of incompetence and premature declarations of victory. Any public relations bounce at home would be dubious at best.
Moreover, even a successful strike could have deleterious repercussions on America: Namely, a unilateral attack on Iran would make the Danish cartoon controversy look like a playground shoving match. US interests abroad, US exports, and US imports of oil could all be imperiled.
A tactical nuclear strike? I can't even begin to describe the long-term implications for America's role in the world and our homeland security. To be the first to cross that line would be the beginning of the end of American power....
Ironically the only way Bush could enhance his standing by tackling the Iran problem is almost unthinkable: Competent diplomacy. And based on today's announcements from Iran, it doesn't look like Iranian leaders are going to let that happen.