Russian forces conducted a limited missile strike targeting Odesa Oblast on the night of April 30 to May 1.
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck Odesa City with three Iskander-M ballistic missiles and destroyed civilian infrastructure.[64] Geolocated footage published on May 1 indicates that Russian forces struck the peacetime headquarters of Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command in Odesa City, and multiple Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces struck the headquarters.[65] It is unclear if Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command was currently operating out of the peacetime headquarters. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Major Ilya Yevlash stated that Ukraine needs more Patriot air defense systems, which Ukrainian forces have previously successfully used to shoot down ballistic missiles including the Iskanders.[66]
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces have about 40 Zircon hypersonic missiles, 400 Onyx anti-ship missiles, 270 Kalibr cruise missiles, and 45 Kh-69 cruise missiles stockpiled as of the end of April 2024.[67] The GUR reported that Russia can produce 10 Zircon missiles, 10 Onyx missiles, 30 to 40 Kalibr missiles, and one to three Kh-69 missiles per month.
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Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast for the second time in less than a month on the night of April 30 to May 1.
Ukrainian outlets Suspilne and RBK-Ukraine reported that sources in Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that the GUR conducted a drone strike on the Rosneft oil refinery in Ryazan City.[12] Ukrainian and Russian sources posted footage of a fire at the refinery.[13] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces shot down one drone over Ryazan Oblast.[14] Ryazan Oblast governor Pavel Malkov acknowledged that a drone struck Ryazan Oblast, however, but did not specify any damage.[15] Ukrainian forces first struck the Ryazan oil refinery on the night of March 12 to 13.[16] Ukrainian strikes within Russia are reportedly forcing Russian forces to take additional defensive measures.[17] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Russian forces have begun to withdraw up to 43 operational-tactical and army aircraft from forward air bases, likely out of fear of Ukrainian drone and long-range high-precision strikes.[18] Mashovets stated that the total number of Russian aircraft deployed at frontline air bases has decreased from 303–305 aircraft to 280–283 aircraft.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russia’s Sovcomflot Is Renaming Oil Tankers Hit by US Sanctions. A UK-based insurance group noted that 800 tankers that it formerly insured have switched over to the shadow fleet to transport sanctioned Russian oil being sold above the price cap
Bloomberg reported that four sanctioned Russian oil tankers have changed their names and are sailing under new flags.[32] Bloomberg reported on April 30 that tankers from Sovcomflot, Russia’s state-owned oil tanker company, renamed four of its sanctioned vessels: the NS Columbus to the Kemerovo, the NS Bravo to the Belgorod, the NS Captain to the Kaliningrad, and the NS Creation to the Krasnoyarsk. Bloomberg reported that these ships are now flying Russian flags after previously sailing with Gabonese flags. The US Treasury Department sanctioned Sovcomflot and 14 of its vessels in February 2024, and Bloomberg reported that it is common for sanctioned vessels to change their names to distance themselves from international sanctions even though each ship has a permanent identification number that remains the same despite a name change. It is unclear why these ships changed their names and flags to highlight their connection with Russia, and this decision seems counterproductive if these vessels hope to distance themselves from international sanctions against Russia.
www.understandingwar.org/...
- The Russian military is reportedly redeploying elements of the 76th and 7th airborne (VDV) divisions from Zaporizhia Oblast in the direction of eastern Ukraine, likely to reinforce and intensify ongoing offensive operations.
- The Russian military may seek to redeploy elements of the 76th or 7th VDV division or both to eastern Ukraine to support Russia’s offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and to capitalize on the current window of vulnerability before American military aid begins reaching the frontline at scale.
- Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast for the second time in less than a month on the night of April 30 to May 1.
- Russian state-run news outlets appear to be amplifying anti-Western rhetoric from former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili and are negatively portraying Georgians protesting against Georgia’s “foreign agents” bill, likely in an attempt to destabilize and divide Georgia.
- The United Nations (UN) and Western organizations continue to demonstrate how North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are directly and indirectly helping Russia’s war effort.
- Russian insider sources speculated that the criminal investigation into Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov may also implicate another deputy defense minister, Rustam Tsalikov.
- Bloomberg reported that four sanctioned Russian oil tankers have changed their names and are sailing under new flags.
- Russian forces made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
- Russian authorities continue recruiting convicted criminals to fight in Ukraine.
Russian forces recently advanced further northwest of Avdiivka and reportedly made additional gains on May 1. Geolocated footage published on May 1 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest and west of Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces, including elements of the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]), advanced further in the area towards Sokil (west of Solovyove and northwest of Avdiivka).[44] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces recently broke through Ukrainian defenses northeast of Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) and have been operating within southern Arkhanhelske (northeast of Ocheretyne and north of Avdiivka) for the past two days.[45] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in fields southwest and northwest of Ocheretyne, west of Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka), northwest of Keramik (north of Avdiivka), and east of Novooleksandrivka (northwest of Avdiivka and Ocheretyne).[46] Fighting also continued north of Avdiivka near Kalynove; northwest of Avdiivka near Prohres, Novopokrovske, and Berdychi; west of Avdiivka near Semenivka, Umanske, and Yasnobrodivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Netaylove.[47] Elements of the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] AC) are reportedly operating near Netaylove.[48]
Illia Vitiuk — the former cybersecurity chief of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) who was suspended from his post following an investigation into his personal finances — was formally dismissed by a presidential decree issued on May 1.
The investigative outlet Slidstvo.Info wrote on April 4 that Vitiuk's family had purchased real estate worth at least Hr 25.5 million (roughly $645,000) in market value.
Vitiuk's wife reportedly started making big earnings after her husband was appointed to the job and bought an apartment in a premium residential complex in Kyiv below the market price.
The National Agency on Corruption Prevention reportedly began monitoring Vitiuk following the revelations.
The outlet said that its journalist who led the investigation, Yevhenii Shulhat, was later targeted by enlistment officers in retaliation. The officers were allegedly accompanied by an SBU officer from Vitiuk's department.
The SBU announced days later that Vitiuk had been suspended and sent to the front while the inquiry into Slidstvo.Info's revelations was underway.
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