The developed world doesn't trust President Trump. He may not trust large, multi-national trade agreements, but no country can trust Trump to negotiate in good faith one on one.
Under the radar, countries are binding together in trade agreements without the United States or China. Sure the US has 24% of the world's GDP and China has 15%.
Here’s the rub. The EU has 22% of GDP and Japan has 6%. which is larger than the US. Oh, I forgot to mention …
Japan and the EU finalized a trade agreement. See how quickly nations complete agreements when faced with an irrational, unpredictable United States.
There is another "quick agreement".
Remember that terrible TPP agreement, Trump exited? I know. I know. Now he has reconsidered, but the TPP nations say “no deal”.
Well the other 11 countries (including Japan) decided to go ahead with the TPP without the United States. The new agreement — Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is the TPP without the 22 US provisions.
One of the most contested provisions advocated for by the US was for increased abilities of companies to sue national governments, in particular over strict regulations over oil and gas developments. Another was the US insistence that copyright extend for the author's lifetime plus 70 years, which is not standard in other countries, and was substantially reduced in the CPTPP language.
(“…Korea will decide whether to join a fledgling Pacific trade pact within the year after looking into its impact on the national economy and consulting with member states, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said Thursday. …” )
Do you think we will ever get any of those provisions in a new Trump deal?
Forgot to say, the CPTPP represents 13% of the world’s GDP.
Here is my prediction. The free world will unite forcing the US to deal with the CPTPP and the EU which is much larger than the US. We will be at a deal making disadvantage.
I don’t think China will be part of this antiAmerican group because the EU and CPTPP have the same problems with China.
Stranger things have happened plus China thinks decades in advance vs. the Trump daily news cycle.
I did want to give a shoutout to many of the Daily KOS regulars:
Japan and the E.U. hit back at Trump with major free trade agreement
BATNA and Trump, a short negotiations lesson
Trump Wants Back In to the TPP? Not. Gonna. Happen.
Trump in full retreat on leaving TPP trade deal he once skewered as 'a rape of our country'
Democrats And Tariffs
Tariffs and trade wars are turning 'America first' into 'America alone'
It turns out that the TPP is bad for the US.
TPP without US opens door for China to kill US manufacturing for good
Thanks to all the above authors and their contribution to the debate.