Republican Sen. David Vitter (left)
On behalf of the conservative website The Hayride, GOP pollster MarblePort Polling gives us a glance at the Oct. 24 jungle primary. Like pretty much everyone, they find Republican Sen. David Vitter and Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards looking good to secure the top-two spots and advance to the Nov. 21 general. They give
Vitter and Edwards 38 and 27 percent respectively, with GOP Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne pretty far back with 15, and Republican Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle bringing up the rear with 6.
These results are very similar to a recent Southern Media and Opinion Research poll, which also showed Edwards easily beating Dardenne for the second place spot. Given how Republican Louisiana has become in the last few cycles, it's hard to see Vitter losing a runoff to Edwards, though a Republican versus Republican contest between Vitter and Dardenne (or less likely, Vitter and Angelle) could be very interesting.
The gubernatorial field looks pretty set, but there's still one potential wildcard out there. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré has been considering the race, and he tells LaPolitics that he's still thinking about it. Honoré rose to prominence during Hurricane Katrina when he led the relief effort to New Orleans, and he shouldn't struggle for name recognition. In recent years, Honoré has decried the oil industry and opposed fracking, but his environmental positions haven't turned him into a Democrat: Honoré says if he runs, he'll likely do it as an independent.
It's possible that if Honoré gets in, he'll take enough Democratic voters away from Edwards to allow Dardenne to advance to a runoff with Vitter. However, MarblePort took a look at a hypothetical five-way jungle primary and found the opposite outcome. Vitter is still clearly in front with 34, while Edwards leads Dardenne by a wider 26-13. Honoré starts off making very little impact, taking only 7 to Angelle's 6.
MarblePort argues that because Honoré does so well among independents, he takes swing voters away and keeps someone like Dardenne from expanding his support. This is just one early poll and things could change, especially if Dardenne or his allies run some ads reminding Democratic voters that they have a lot in common with Honoré. But right now, a Vitter-Edwards runoff continues to look like the most likely scenario.