The BBC released the results of exit polling in the British General Election.
Cautionary note, there has been much talk of how difficult it is to correctly conduct exit polling in such a variegated electoral environment. The primary model typically employed depended on examining only a few marginal seats (those with the highest probability of swinging one way or the other other). But, such an approach works best in an election with two clearly dominant parties.
That is not true in this election in the UK. Neither party was polling north of 35% nationally.
Moreover, both those suffering and those gaining seats based on the exit poll projections are throwing some cold water on the pronouncement. Nonetheless, this exit poll is all that watchers of the UK General Election have to use till the seat counts come in.
The projected seat totals are Tories 316, Labour 239 (worst showing since 1987 when they netted 220), Lib-Dems 10 (!), SNP 58 (also !).
Both the leader of the Lib-Dems and the SNP have cast doubt on the value of the projected seat totals. But, unless there is a miss as huge as that which hit the BBC when they projected a massive win for Harold Wilson oh so many years ago (he won in a squeaker) this is bad news for Miliband.
The most important takeaway, should these numbers hold fast, is that the Tories and vastly reduced Lib-Dems would (barely) have sufficient seats to cobble together a majority of 326. Meanwhile there would be no realistic path for Labour to cobble together such a large coalition.
Bad news too for those hoping to avoid a referendum on staying in Europe. Finally, it would seal the deal for SNP and Scottish Independence in all likelihood. Which would also be a terrible outcome in my view.
But, I guess Clegg and the Lib-Dems get their participation trophy - so that just makes it all peachy.