The election of Barack Obama in 2008 was a stunning win for the Democratic Party in the electoral college. Obama swept historically blue states like New Jersey, Minnesota, New York, Washington, etc., which was no surprise. But what was surprising was Obama carrying the electoral votes of Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. And in the case of Indiana and Virginia, this was the first time since the election of President Johnson in 1964 that a Democrat carried both states in a presidential election.
Winning re-election in 2012, President Obama failed to carry Indiana and North Carolina, but was able to repeat his win in Virginia, surprising many.
Many political pundits, and some Democrats, suggested that Obama's wins in Virginia was due to a unique set of circumstances, where Democrats were able to maximize their turnout in a presidential election of single women, minority voters, and young people and that they would be unable to duplicate their success in statewide races for governor, lt. governor, and attorney general in Virginia's off year elections in 2013.
But all the pundits were wrong. Bucking historic trends in Virginia, Democrats swept all three statewide races in Virginia in the fall of 2013, and this was also the first time the party in control of the White House won the governors race in Virginia at least five decades.
Virginia's soaring population since 2000 - people moving into the state from the northeast, midwest and California, shifted the politics and demographics of Virginia quite dramatically. Many of states new residences were African-American, who left the large cities and suburbs of the northeast and midwest and moved to Virginia. However, the majority were educated, middle and upper middle class whites. But regardless of who they were, most of these new residents of the state settled into a geographic area of Virginia known as the "urban crescent."
Virginia's urban crescent stretches from the Northern Virginia suburbs (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William) through Metro Richmond (Richmond, Chesterfield, and Henrico) to Hampton Roads (Williamsburg, Newport News, Hampton, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake). It follows Interstates 95 and 64 and it looks like a crescent moon, hence the name. The region has experienced most of Virginia's population growth the last two decades, as the population growth continues to decline across many rural counties in the state.
As the urban and suburban areas of the urban crescent have exploded in population growth, so have the voting rolls. And as a result over the last ten years, Democrats have put together a coalition across the urban crescent, resulting in winning all statewide races in 2008, 2012, and 2014. Why? Because these new voters, regardless of their race, income or levels of education, were starting to vote as a bloc in Virginia, just as they were in other states like PA, IL, and CA and winning elections for Democrats.
The 2008 Obama campaign was a big part of why Virginia is turning bluer. With its regimented field plan and huge, committed volunteer base, the Obama campaign was able to register HUGE numbers of new voters throughout Virginia and turn them out on election day, which paved the way for these statewide victories. Even in some of the more rural counties in southside Virginia, Obama was able to carry several of these counties by volunteers canvassing and registering a lot of rural African-American voters who had never registered to vote due to policies of former governors who go back decades, who were staunch segregationists, but that is a whole diary all by itself.
But the commitment to keep registering new voters in Virginia needs to continue in order to keep the state turning bluer. With the state legislature still controlled by the GOP, many with a Tea Party tilt, Democrats and their allies need to keep registering new/more voters, and turning them out on election day in order to have a chance at taking over part of the legislature in this falls legislative races, in which control of the state senate is at stake.
Denise Oliver Velez wrote a great diary on Sunday, April 19, 2015 titled 90 for 90. Getting out the vote in Virginia in which she documented the efforts by one man, civil rights icon Ferguson "Fergie" Reid to register new voters across the state of Virginia to impact the legislative races in Virginia this fall. It is these types of efforts by individuals across Virginia that will keep Virginia turning a deeper shade of blue. I urge everyone to read Denise's diary - I don't know how to post the link to it so if someone has the time to do so in a comment, that would be great. Otherwise, you can search for it.
Another factor that will continue to turn Virginia a deeper shade of blue is the restoration of rights for convicted felons. The governor of Virginia restored the rights of 5,113 Virginians to vote, serve on a jury, hold public office and become notaries in the state of Virginia in 2014 and from what I hear, that number will be much higher in 2015.
A disproportionate number of convicted felons in Virginia are African-American men, due to the state of Virginia's racist and punitive criminal justice system.
Virginia has historically been among the most restrictive states in the nation in returning civil rights to former offenders, requiring felons to go through a waiting period and a detailed application process even after they have served their time.
Only the governor can restore civil rights to felons, and attempts over the years to amend the Virginia Constitution to allow automatic restoration have failed. Nonviolent felons do not have to wait to apply for their rights to be restored once they have served their time and paid fines and restitution.
But by changing the archaic and outdated process of restoring rights, more and more individuals are having their rights restored and this process should continue to expand the voting rolls, and increasing votes for Democratic candidates.
http://www.richmond.com/...
One last thing that will keep moving Virginia to a deeper shade of blue? Getting rid of old voting equipment that does not work well, is unreliable, and that is used by so many of our Democratic base voters in urban/suburban areas throughout Virginia and in many other states. Remember the old equipment used in Florida by African-American voters in many counties that were so old they couldn't record their votes? Well, in many urban and suburban areas, Democratic strongholds like the city Richmond, Fairfax County and Henrico County, all the voting machines are being replaced:
Last week, the State Board of Elections decreed that voting machines used by more than two dozen localities — including Richmond, Henrico and Fairfax — could no longer be used. The WinVote machines, some of which don’t work well because of age, are vulnerable to hacking. Quite vulnerable, apparently.
http://www.richmond.com/...
Clearly, everything seems to be firing on all cylinders in Virginia for Democrats. But everyone in Virginia needs to keep up the great work they have been doing the last seven years to put Virginia permanently in the Democratic column, both in presidential races as well as other statewide and local legislative races and make the state deep blue from top to bottom. With legislative races coming up this fall, and control of the state senate on the line, will see how much bluer the state can become.