County first!
County benchmarks have become a delightful Election Day tradition at Daily Kos Elections, and here's your 2014 installment. If you're not familiar with the concept, you might be wondering why you would want to look at county-level returns, considering how hard it is just to keep track of what's happening at the statewide level across the full range of states. The reason is, votes don't come in uniformly across the state level. Different counties may report at different rates, some coming in sooner than others, and different counties can be much bluer and redder than the state average. A particularly large and particularly liberal or conservative county that reports earlier in the process might skew the overall chances in the state, and here are the tools you'll need to "unskew" the results as they come in.
The "what we need" column shows what the Democratic candidate in each race needs to be getting in each county to be on track to hit 50 percent overall, statewide. To avoid information overload, we're only looking at the counties that provide more than 2 percent of a state's total votes; the precise amount you can see in the "percent of 2012 statewide vote" column.
We're using the 2012 presidential results as the baseline here, which doesn't always exactly translate to Senate or gubernatorial results, though, as different candidates may have pockets of strength in particular areas of the state. Take Kay Hagan, for instance; she's from Greensboro, in Guilford County, North Carolina, where she was a state senator before getting promoted. She may overperform distinctly in Guilford County, so keep that in mind when looking at that county's results, but also, that would allow her to underperform a tiny bit in the other parts of the state.
We're starting with Colorado, since that has not just the linchpin race in the Senate but also a close gubernatorial race; over the fold, there are more than a dozen more states with key Senate or gubernatorial races. You'll notice that I've also included several New England states here; New England states report election results by city and town, not county, but I've adapted the process to account for towns here. (In Connecticut, I've had to lower the percentage cutoff to 1.5 percent and in Maine and Massachusetts all the way down to 1.0, since even the biggest towns are only a small percentage of the state's total. Also bear in mind that in Maine, although Eliot Cutler sort of dropped out, he's still on track to earn around 10 percent, so the Mike Michaud target might be more like 45 percent.)
Colorado
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/47 |
51/46 |
Jefferson |
12.1 |
50/47 |
51/46 |
Denver |
11.7 |
73/25 |
74/24 |
El Paso |
11.3 |
38/60 |
39/59 |
Arapahoe |
11.1 |
53/45 |
54/44 |
Larimer |
7.0 |
50/47 |
51/46 |
Boulder |
7.0 |
69/29 |
70/28 |
Adams |
6.9 |
56/41 |
57/40 |
Douglas |
6.5 |
35/63 |
36/62 |
Weld |
4.5 |
41/56 |
42/55 |
Pueblo |
3.0 |
55/43 |
56/42 |
Mesa |
2.8 |
32/66 |
33/65 |
We'll start with Alaska, which unfortunately picked a really bad year to not have counties, considering that its senator, governor, and at-large representative are all in some amount of danger this year. It has boroughs and census areas, but it doesn't report votes according to those jurisdictions. If you're super-curious about following along with Alaska, the state Division of Elections does report election results according to state House districts, though only in clumsy pdf form. You can match that against our presidential results-by-legislative district spreadsheet.
Arkansas
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
37/61 |
Pulaski |
14.9 |
68/30 |
55/43 |
Benton |
7.4 |
42/56 |
29/69 |
Washington |
6.6 |
53/43 |
40/56 |
Saline |
4.1 |
40/57 |
27/70 |
Sebastian |
7.0 |
43/54 |
30/67 |
Faulkner |
3.9 |
46/51 |
33/64 |
Garland |
3.8 |
47/51 |
34/64 |
Craighead |
3.0 |
46/51 |
33/64 |
Jefferson |
2.6 |
77/22 |
64/35 |
White |
2.5 |
35/62 |
22/75 |
Lonoke |
2.3 |
36/61 |
23/74 |
Connecticut
Town |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
58/41 |
Stamford |
3.0 |
54/45 |
62/37 |
New Haven |
2.8 |
81/18 |
89/10 |
Waterbury |
2.8 |
66/33 |
74/25 |
Bridgeport |
2.4 |
78/22 |
86/14 |
Norwalk |
2.2 |
55/44 |
63/36 |
Hartford |
2.1 |
85/14 |
93/6 |
Danbury |
1.7 |
50/48 |
58/40 |
Milford |
1.6 |
46/53 |
54/45 |
Bristol |
1.5 |
47/52 |
55/44 |
Florida
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
50/49 |
Miami-Dade |
10.4 |
62/38 |
62/38 |
Broward |
8.9 |
67/32 |
67/32 |
Palm Beach |
7.1 |
58/41 |
58/41 |
Hillsborough |
6.4 |
53/46 |
53/46 |
Orange |
5.5 |
59/40 |
59/40 |
Pinellas |
5.4 |
52/46 |
52/46 |
Duval |
4.9 |
48/51 |
48/51 |
Brevard |
3.4 |
43/56 |
43/56 |
Lee |
3.2 |
41/58 |
41/58 |
Polk |
2.9 |
46/53 |
46/53 |
Volusia |
2.8 |
49/50 |
49/50 |
Pasco |
2.5 |
46/52 |
46/52 |
Seminole |
2.5 |
46/53 |
46/53 |
Sarasota |
2.4 |
46/53 |
46/53 |
Georgia
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
45/53 |
Fulton |
10.2 |
69/30 |
64/35 |
Cobb |
8.0 |
48/50 |
43/55 |
De Kalb |
7.9 |
83/16 |
78/21 |
Gwinnett |
7.6 |
50/49 |
45/54 |
Chatham |
2.8 |
60/38 |
55/43 |
Cherokee |
2.5 |
25/73 |
20/78 |
Clayton |
2.5 |
90/10 |
85/15 |
Henry |
2.3 |
53/46 |
48/51 |
Forsyth |
2.1 |
23/76 |
18/81 |
Richmond |
2.0 |
72/28 |
67/33 |
Illinois
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
58/41 |
Cook |
38.4 |
66/33 |
74/25 |
Du Page |
7.6 |
42/57 |
50/49 |
Lake |
5.5 |
45/53 |
53/45 |
Will |
5.3 |
44/54 |
52/46 |
Kane |
3.5 |
42/57 |
50/49 |
McHenry |
2.6 |
37/61 |
45/53 |
Madison |
2.3 |
40/57 |
48/49 |
St. Clair |
2.3 |
48/50 |
56/42 |
Winnebago |
2.3 |
44/54 |
52/46 |
Iowa
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
52/46 |
Polk |
14.5 |
54/44 |
56/42 |
Linn |
7.5 |
56/42 |
58/40 |
Scott |
5.7 |
54/44 |
56/42 |
Johnson |
4.8 |
65/33 |
67/31 |
Black Hawk |
4.2 |
57/41 |
59/39 |
Dubuque |
3.2 |
55/44 |
57/42 |
Story |
3.0 |
54/44 |
56/42 |
Woodbury |
2.8 |
48/51 |
50/49 |
Pottawatomie |
2.7 |
44/54 |
46/52 |
Dallas |
2.4 |
41/57 |
43/55 |
Kansas
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
38/60 |
Johnson |
23.7 |
52/46 |
40/58 |
Sedgwick |
15.8 |
51/46 |
39/58 |
Shawnee |
6.6 |
60/37 |
48/49 |
Wyandotte |
4.4 |
80/19 |
68/31 |
Douglas |
4.2 |
73/24 |
61/36 |
Leavenworth |
2.5 |
51/47 |
39/59 |
Butler |
2.2 |
40/58 |
28/70 |
Reno |
2.1 |
45/52 |
33/64 |
Kentucky
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
38/60 |
Jefferson |
18.9 |
67/32 |
55/44 |
Fayette |
7.0 |
61/36 |
49/48 |
Kenton |
3.8 |
49/49 |
37/61 |
Boone |
2.9 |
42/56 |
30/68 |
Warren |
2.4 |
50/48 |
38/60 |
Daviess |
2.3 |
51/48 |
39/60 |
Campbell |
2.2 |
50/48 |
38/60 |
Hardin |
2.2 |
51/48 |
39/60 |
Louisiana
Parish |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
41/58 |
East Baton Rouge |
9.9 |
61/38 |
52/47 |
Jefferson |
8.8 |
49/49 |
40/58 |
Orleans |
7.9 |
89/9 |
80/18 |
St. Tammany |
5.7 |
32/66 |
23/75 |
Caddo |
5.6 |
61/38 |
52/47 |
Lafayette |
4.9 |
41/57 |
32/66 |
Calcasieu |
4.1 |
45/54 |
36/63 |
Ouachita |
3.4 |
48/51 |
39/60 |
Rapides |
2.9 |
44/55 |
35/64 |
Livingston |
2.7 |
23/75 |
14/84 |
Ascension |
2.6 |
41/57 |
32/66 |
Tangipahoa |
2.5 |
44/54 |
35/63 |
Bossier |
2.4 |
36/63 |
27/72 |
Terrebonne |
2.1 |
38/61 |
29/70 |
St. Landry |
2.1 |
56/43 |
47/52 |
Maine
Town |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/47 |
56/41 |
Portland |
4.9 |
70/27 |
76/21 |
Lewiston |
2.1 |
55/43 |
61/37 |
Bangor |
2.1 |
52/45 |
58/39 |
S. Portland |
2.0 |
63/35 |
69/29 |
Auburn |
1.5 |
52/45 |
58/39 |
Biddeford |
1.4 |
61/37 |
67/31 |
Saco |
1.4 |
56/42 |
62/36 |
Sanford |
1.3 |
53/45 |
59/39 |
Augusta |
1.2 |
53/44 |
59/38 |
Westbrook |
1.2 |
51/37 |
57/31 |
Massachusetts
Town |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
61/38 |
Boston |
7.7 |
68/30 |
79/19 |
Worcester |
1.8 |
58/40 |
69/29 |
Springfield |
1.7 |
69/30 |
80/19 |
Cambridge |
1.5 |
75/22 |
86/11 |
Newton |
1.4 |
60/38 |
71/27 |
Quincy |
1.2 |
50/48 |
61/37 |
Brockton |
1.1 |
63/36 |
74/25 |
Somerville |
1.1 |
71/25 |
82/14 |
Lowell |
1.0 |
56/42 |
67/31 |
New Bedford |
1.0 |
65/34 |
76/23 |
Michigan
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
54/45 |
Wayne |
17.3 |
69/30 |
73/26 |
Oakland |
13.8 |
49/49 |
53/45 |
Macomb |
8.5 |
47/51 |
51/47 |
Kent |
6.2 |
42/57 |
46/53 |
Genesee |
4.3 |
59/39 |
63/35 |
Washtenaw |
3.8 |
63/35 |
67/31 |
Ottawa |
2.8 |
28/71 |
32/67 |
Ingham |
2.7 |
59/39 |
63/35 |
Kalamazoo |
2.6 |
52/47 |
56/43 |
Livingston |
2.1 |
34/65 |
38/61 |
Saginaw |
2.1 |
51/47 |
55/43 |
New Hampshire
Town |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
52/46 |
Manchester |
6.5 |
52/46 |
54/44 |
Nashua |
5.7 |
54/44 |
56/42 |
Concord |
3.0 |
63/36 |
65/34 |
Derry |
2.2 |
45/54 |
47/52 |
Dover |
2.2 |
58/40 |
60/38 |
Rochester |
2.0 |
50/49 |
52/47 |
Salem |
2.0 |
40/59 |
42/57 |
Merrimack |
2.0 |
44/54 |
46/52 |
North Carolina
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
48/50 |
Wake |
10.8 |
57/42 |
55/44 |
Mecklenburg |
10.0 |
63/36 |
61/38 |
Guilford |
5.6 |
60/39 |
58/41 |
Forsyth |
3.9 |
55/44 |
53/46 |
Durham |
3.3 |
78/21 |
76/23 |
Buncombe |
2.8 |
57/41 |
55/43 |
Cumberland |
2.8 |
61/38 |
59/40 |
New Hanover |
2.3 |
49/50 |
47/52 |
Union |
2.1 |
36/64 |
34/66 |
Gaston |
2.0 |
39/60 |
37/62 |
Wisconsin
County |
% of 2012
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2012 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
53/46 |
Milwaukee |
16.0 |
64/34 |
67/31 |
Dane |
9.9 |
68/30 |
71/27 |
Waukesha |
7.9 |
29/70 |
32/67 |
Brown |
4.2 |
45/53 |
48/50 |
Racine |
3.4 |
48/51 |
51/48 |
Outagamie |
3.1 |
45/53 |
48/50 |
Winnebago |
2.9 |
48/50 |
51/47 |
Kenosha |
2.6 |
52/45 |
55/43 |
Rock |
2.6 |
58/41 |
61/38 |
Washington |
2.6 |
26/73 |
29/70 |
Marathon |
2.3 |
43/55 |
46/52 |
La Crosse |
2.1 |
55/44 |
58/41 |
Sheboygan |
2.0 |
42/57 |
45/54 |
If you're interested in more benchmarks, plus colorful maps, Daily Kos Elections community member Alibguy has more.