Here's a quick-and-dirty guide to a story that's breaking in Western media, and an appeal to caution. Long story short, an Estonian intelligence officer is being held by Russian FSB, who claim that he was captured doing undercover work on Russian soil; the Estonians claim he was kidnapped while investigating cross-border crime on the Estonian side.
The facts:
- Cross-border crime between Estonia and Russia is not uncommon, and this case may have started with something related to drug running. Earlier today an Estonian citizen (non-intelligence) was arrested in Pskov for amphetamines, although the details on this case are cloudy, too. (I'm not saying these two events are connected, just that this is a known problem.)
- the Russian version sounds a bit like an old spy novel: the intelligence officer was sneaking across the border with a pistol, a secret recording device, and a wad of cash;
- the Estonian version also sounds a bit like an old spy novel: the intelligence officer was abducted by Russian security, who'd crossed onto Estonian soil and were involved in some kind of physical struggle, eventually taking the officer by gunpoint;
- In either case, it's not like old-fashioned spy maneuvers don't occur: this could be a case of tit-for-tat, since a Russia spy was convicted in Estonia last year;
- Russian media hasn't been too interested in this story (it's buried on most sites), and Estonia has also been somewhat tentative in its responses, as well;
- Nevertheless, certain American pundits (who I won't dignify by linking) are predicting World War III, as if this kind of thing hadn't happened before. It's the proximity of Obama's Baltic security speech this week that makes the kidnapping/capture seem like a NATO provocation, and whether that's the case or not, the two countries involved seem to be handling it diplomatically so far.
Obviously we'll see how it plays out as the facts develop.