Continued from part 1, this is the positive side of the ledger: the chances that Democrats have to pick up Senate seats currently held by Republicans, in order to offset their near-certain losses in several Senate races in November.
As explained earlier, with 23 Democrats up for re-election and only 10 Republicans, the playing field isn't exactly level here, and Team Blue needs to put their best game into this election cycle to come out even.
(more below fold)
PICKUP OPPORTUNITIES: (Total: 3)
Arizona: Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) could probably have held this Senate seat, given his personal solidity and the red hue of Arizona politics, for as long as he wanted it. Turns out he doesn't want it anymore.
The current leader for the GOP nomination to succeed him is Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), a real, well.....flake. Two Democrats have stepped up, and there is persistent speculation that a third, former Gubernatorial candidate Terry Goddard, will also jump in. Former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) has declined to run, instead concentrating on recovering from the assassination attempt on her a year ago, although Rep. Giffords has also stated that she'll be back one day.
Don Bivens is the former head of the Arizona Democratic Party, and otherwise an attorney (leave the lawyer jokes out of this, please :P). He's running on a populist economics-and-immigration platform.
EDIT: Thanks to sapelcovits (comments, below), I have removed my earlier designation of Mr. Bivens as a conservative Democrat. He appears to be moderate on most issues, and liberal on a few. Then again, AZ's hardly going to elect someone like Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA).....ever. I am not endorsing either Mr. Bivens or Dr. Carmona - merely noting key points of their platforms.
Richard Carmona is the former Surgeon-General of the United States, and a registered independent. Appointed by the Bush Administration to the position, he immediately began criticising the Administration as soon as he left office in 2007, accusing President Bush of - among other things - partisanly interfering in professional studies and stifling his right to dissent from the Republican line. Not much is yet out about Dr. Carmona.
Terry Goddard was the Democratic candidate for Governor of Arizona in 2010. Ordinarily, running against a flake like Jan Brewer (R-AZ) would make life easy, but the Republican tidal wave of 2010 swamped Mr. Goddard. As Attorney-General of Arizona, Mr. Goddard was particularly energetic in pursuing the big banks over fraudulent foreclosures, and issue which would play well if he were to decide to run.
Presently, Rep. Flake leads all comers bar Rep. Giffords (who isn't running) and Mr. Goddard (who hasn't spoken on the matter as yet).
Massachusetts: One of the first signs of the Republican wave of 2010 was the shock election of then-State Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) to the seat vacated by the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA). He was assisted by the fact that his Democratic opponent, Attorney-General Martha Coakley, was a poor campaigner, to say the least.
Sen. Brown's not so fortunate in 2012. He's up against Elizabeth Warren, a heroine of the progressive cause who needs to introduction here, and she's smart, an adept campaigner (thus far at least) and quite willing - and able - to ding him on his pro-Wall Street record in the Senate. Polls initially recorded a lead for Sen. Brown, but Mrs. Warren rapidly caught up with him, and in the latest polls has overtaken Sen. Brown to lead the race.
Nevada: Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) was a popular incumbent looking to cruise to a third term in the Senate. Then it emerged that he has not only had an affair with a female staff-member of his, but had also used Federal and campaign money to pay her and her husband off. Needless to say, confronted by that much evidence, Sen. Ensign decided to resign, and Rep. Dean Heller was appointed to the seat. Dean Heller is a particularly obnoxious conservative, who nonetheless talks up a good moderate fight. If the Democrats can knock him off in 2012, the Senate will be a better place for it - and they've found someone who mich be able to.
Rep. Shelley Berkley is a 6-term Congresswoman and a moderate, although not conservative, Democrat. She has supported healthcare reform, the invasion of Iraq, cap-and-trade, TARP and Internet gambling regulations. Her one serious weakness appears to be a shaky grasp on ethics: while CREW were unable to find sufficient concrete eveidence of wrongdoing to accuse her of outright corruption in their 2010 report, she was given a "dishonorable mention".