Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 1/26-29. Registered voters. MoE ±3.1% (1/13-16 results—PDF):
Q: If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama (D): 46 (49)
Mitt Romney (R): 42 (44)
Undecided: 12 (7)
Q: If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama (D): 49 (49)
Newt Gingrich (R): 40 (42)
Undecided: 11 (9)
That's Obama +4 over Romney but +9 over Gingrich. The "why" couldn't be simpler:
Q: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?
Favorable: 31 (35)
Unfavorable: 47 (53)
Unsure: 22 (13)
Q: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable: 25 (26)
Unfavorable: 60 (60)
Unsure: 15 (14)
It's not that Romney's favorables are bad—they're terrible. But Gingrich's are just mind-blowingly awful. It's sad that his fortunes have dwindled so badly in the GOP primary, but hey, Newt did come back from the dead once before, so don't give up all hope just yet!
And speaking of favorables, as our pollster Tom Jensen thought they would, Barack Obama's numbers have bounced back nicely after a tough week last week—and his job approval score positively danced upward:
Has a presidential challenger with -16 favorables, like Romney, ever beaten an incumbent at +1, like Obama?