One of Pennsylvania's dailies has released an article tonight that provides evidence that Clinton is losing support among women, and particularly among white women. They rely on several different polls to make what I think is a pretty good argument. Obama is chipping away at Clinton's base.
More below the fold...
I would like to apologize to everyone in advance for the lack of coverage of bittergate in this diary. I know it is the most pressing issue of this campaign, illustrated by the fact that there are no less than 14 diaries on the recent list right now about this issue. There will be no bitterness in this diary. None (well, ok, except for this paragraph, but no more after this).
First, the newest Quinnipiac University poll is out, and it shows Clinton dropping 6 points among white women April 3-6.
A Lifetime Network Poll conducted April 2-7 says 26 percent of white women like Clinton less now than they did in January.
An Associated Press-Ipsos conducted April 7-9 shows Clinton dropping from 51% support in February among (all) women to only 44% now, which is almost even with Obama's 42% showing among women in the same poll.
The article postulates that Obama's media campaign is a primary reason for the drop in support among women, but based on what I've been hearing out of Pennsylvania, I think his ground operations may be even more effective than his media buys. I don't have a quotable source on this, just a general feeling based on conversations within the MyBO phone banking support group (which I am a member of) and conversations with friends and fellow supporters who have gone to Pennsylvania to help out the campaign. The ground operation there is a well-oiled machine with serious, experienced volunteers from all over the country working every street, corner, and back alley.
I think, though, that what's really setting in is a realization that Clinton simply cannot win. The MSM keeps telling us that people don't want to hear about the math. They think it's too complex for the average voter, but I think most voters are smarter than we give them credit for. The information cost of voting is much lower this year than other years. I've never seen this much coverage of a primary election. Even the most informed voters are getting tired of the endless analysis on cable news.
More than anything, though, I think Clinton's "exaggerations" did her in. She has become less than a serious candidate and more of a joke, and when a candidate becomes a joke, it's over.
Caution: Voters are smarter than they appear. Ordinary people know that a divided party will not win in November. Pennsylvanians of all walks of life are beginning to understand that they can end this, and why they should. I don't know if that will be enough to put Obama over the top. I still think he's going to lose but by a much closer margin than anticipated. I can hope, though, and I can work hard to make it happen.
UPDATE/BONUS: Since this diary is really just some polls plus my late night ramblings, I thought I'd throw in some bonus material. Hillary is also losing the netroots.
This graph shows the number of PA visitors to both the Obama and Clinton websites. It's not even close. There's a point at the beginning of April where it got close, but it wasn't close before or after.
This graph shows the face time of the candidates on YouTube. Guess who wins again? That's right. Obama. Hands down.
This graph shows some other interesting metrics.