Do you ever get that feeling that you have just witnessed a major event? Last night while watching the Democrat Debates, I had just that feeling. While clearly I am a big Barack supporter, I tried to go into the debate (Which I live blogged here) unbiased and tried to just listen to the tone and see what I could get from the debate. But, there was that "Moment". The "I knew Jack Kennedy, I served with Jack Kennedy, Dan, you are no Jack Kennedy" moment.
It was when Hillary was trying to bash Obama for what she perceived to be "flip flopping". Without using the Republican attack word, that is what she was implying Something special then happened. John Edwards came to Barack's defense and said the following:
"I didn't hear these kinds of attacks from Senator Clinton when she was
ahead," Edwards said. "Every time he speaks out for change, every time
I fight for change, the forces of status quo are going to attack --
every single time."
It was at this moment that I realized the positioning of the candidates on the platform. That positioning was:
- Barack Obama clearly in the lead
- Hillary was trying to play catch up. Like a football team going for the long bombs as they see the game slip away. She was "swinging for the fences". (Equal opportunity analogies... had to use Baseball).
- John Edwards was aligning with Barack. Perhaps for a VP spot? He was not trying to take on the front runner but rather trying to join him.
- Bill Richardson.. well, he was just "there".
The New York Times called it "The alliance of convenience".
What I also think happened last night is that Ms. Clinton was cast as the "status quo" and "the "establishment". Everyone wants to be seen as a Washington outsider so they can say they are going to come in and clean up the mess. But Ms. Clinton, in her own admission, has been working Government for 35 years. This makes her part of the mess (by her own admission). John Edwards referred to her as "the establishment" and that hit hard and it hurt. The Clintons have always tried to be the "anti-establishment". It is kind of like that moment when you realize you have become just like your parents. All your life you fought not to be "like them" and then you wake up and you realize you have become them. That is what happened to Ms. Clinton last night. She, along with the rest of America, woke up and realized she "was the establishment". Not good if you are running on a change platform.
Then there was the "likability issue" which was brought up by a New Hampshire reporter. He basically asked Ms. Clinton why the polls say that people just don't like her. Hillary's response:
"Well, that hurts my feelings, but I’ll try to go on," she said in a
soft voice, her smile widening. "He’s very likable, I agree with that.
But I don’t think I’m that bad."
To wit, Obama responded:
"You’re likable enough."
That was a funny exchange but it also showed Barack Obama was in command. It showed it was about Hillary proving why she is not likable versus Barack showing why he should take on a front runner. It was Barack saying, "ah, don't worry about it, we like you a little..". Again, an indication that the positions had changed and she was trying to catch up.
So, I believe the story from this debate will be that Obama is in a commanding lead and Hillary is struggling to find a message that will resonate with voters. Obama has taken the torch of change theme right out of her hands and has cast her as a "Washington Insider" and "The Establishment" successfully, with the help of John Edwards.
A loss in NH may not be the death blow for Hillary but it will injure her dramatically. Obama needs to ensure that he keeps the position he is in. Keep acting "as if". As if it is a foregone conclusion that he will be President and all the people around him like Hillary are just chasing him and ankle biting.