The only way to really understand the reach and damage from Coronavirus is to study it. Data is our friend, even when the results are not what we hope for. Data has no bias. It just is, and without it, we are flying blind. Fortunately, as testing ramps up, we are starting to see more data come in which allows for better decisions moving forward, but we also need to look back and find out where we’ve been and whether we’ve got an accurate picture of what happened during this first wave. A study funded by the Washington Post and run by Yale researchers seeks to do just that and concludes we are likely significantly under counting deaths due to COVID-19. The study runs from 3/1-5/9 and estimates the country like surpassed 100,000 deaths in early May which is three weeks earlier than the official counts.
Between March 1 and May 9, the nation recorded an estimated 101,600 excess deaths, or deaths beyond the number that would normally be expected for that time of year, according to an analysis conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health. That figure reflects about 26,000 more fatalities than were attributed to covid-19 on death certificates during that period, according to federal data.
That figure is about 26,000 higher than the official count for 5/9 and is based on studying “excess deaths”, which is the number of actual deaths recorded minus the average number of deaths from the same time period in years past. The researchers listed a range of 97,500-105,500 excess deaths during this time period with a 95% confidence interval. The figure listed above is the midpoint of that range.
Not all excess deaths may be directly due to Coronavirus, but some might be collateral damage of the pandemic.
Those 26,000 fatalities were not necessarily caused directly by the virus. They could also include people who died as a result of the epidemic but not from the disease itself, such as those who were afraid to seek medical help for unrelated illnesses. Increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as motor vehicle accidents, also affect the count.
As much as we at DK might expect this is because of GOP dirty tricks to make Trump and in turn themselves look better and minimize the risk, this actually does not appear to be a blue state/red state issue. For example, California shows 4800 excess deaths but only 2700 are attributed to COVID-19. So, only 58% of the excess deaths are listed as directly due to Coronavirus. Florida, on the other hand, has 2800 excess deaths with 1800 due to Coronavirus or 67%. There are some notable red states appearing near the bottom of the list for accuracy including Texas (39%), Tennessee (40%), Arizona (40%), and South Carolina at the very bottom with 30% of excess deaths attributed to Coronavirus. So there maybe some political calculations at work, but the simple fact is we are under counting almost everywhere with significant outbreaks.
There are also states which could be over counting. Both Pennsylvania (+1000) and Ohio (+500) have significantly more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths, but all the rest of states that fall in this category do not show significant numbers of excess or Coronavirus deaths. Some of these states even show less deaths than in years past, but again they all have small numbers to begin with. In addition, there have been drop offs in other causes of death due to changes in lifestyles caused by the Pandemic. As noted above, car fatalities are down significantly from years past due to people driving a lot less miles as they work from home or don’t work at all.
The article also notes the National Center for Health Statistics ran its own study of excess deaths also with a 95% confidence interval with very similar numbers but a wider range of outcomes and a midpoint of ~104,000 though it also includes an extra month of data.
The NCHS is conducting its own analyses of excess deaths during the pandemic and has also reported numbers well beyond the government’s official covid-19 death toll, but with a wider range of estimates. The agency estimates there were between 89,257 and 119,706 excess deaths from Feb. 1 to May 9.
When it released this data, the NCHS only published the low estimate and mid-range from their study and claimed the high end number might be misleading. However other researchers not affiliated with either study disagree, and say it’s unusual for scientists not to publish the full range.
Sadly, if these estimates are correct then at present we are likely closer to 130,000 dead from Coronavirus, and it’s not necessarily because red states are hiding data, though some might indeed be doing that. The simple fact is this pandemic is taking a brutal toll all across the world and the United States is being impacted severely. As we move toward reopening we can only hope we will do it the right way this time with a robust regimen of testing, contact tracing and isolation to keep the clusters contained and allow us all to live our best lives.
