Republicans have decided to scrap the Iowa Straw Poll for this election cycle.
The August poll of Republican activists in Iowa has been a tradition for many years, and has been a poor (though not unavoidably inaccurate) predictor of the following year’s Republican Iowa caucus, let alone a predictor of who wins the presidential election, or even the Republican nomination.
In 1979, G. H. W. Bush won the straw poll and the caucus, but R. W. Reagan won the Republican nomination and the presidential election. No straw poll was held in 1983, but the ‘87 poll was won by right-wing televangelist Pat Robertson. Bob Dole won the Iowa Caucus, and G. H. W. Bush won the Republican nomination and the ‘88 election.
There was no 1991 straw poll, there being a Republican incumbent in the White House. In 1995, the winner of the ‘88 Iowa Caucus, Bob Dole, won the straw poll (tying with right-winger Phil Gramm—so give Dole half a win). Dole went on to win both the Iowa Caucus and the Republican nomination, but was bested in the presidential election by W. J. Clinton.
The 1999 straw poll was won by G. W. Bush, as was the Iowa Caucus, the Republican nomination, and the presidential election. This is the only Fourple Crown in the straw poll’s history.
In 2007, the winner of the straw poll was Mitt Romney, who apparently peaked too early. The Iowa Caucus winner was right-wing preacher Mike Huckabee. John McCain won the Republican presidential nomination, and Barack Obama won the presidential election. Note that no two of these contests had the same winner. That’s the first time that had happened, quite a disappointment after the 1999 Fourple Crown.
The fail of 2007 was repeated in 2011. Right-wing nutcase Michele Bachmann surprised everyone by bussing in supporters to win the straw poll. Right-wing homophobe Rick Santorum won the Iowa Caucus. The previous cycle’s straw poll winner, Mitt Romney, won the Republican nomination, but the incumbent president, Barack Obama, won the election. Again, no two of these contests had the same winner.
The Iowa Straw Poll seems to have outlived whatever questionable usefulness it ever had. Out of its six runs, it only chose the eventual president once (G. W. Bush), only picked the Republican nominee twice (Bob Dole in 1995—if you discount his tie with Phil Gramm—and G. W. Bush). It did somewhat better, picking the winner of the Iowa caucus almost 50% of the time--two and a half hits out of six, to be exact (G. H. W. Bush, G. W. Bush, and again, Bob Dole’s tie with Phil Gramm).
Predicting the winner of a presidential contest fifteen months out is virtually impossible, so it isn’t surprising that the straw poll is so bad at that. For the ground to shift so far between the straw poll in August and the caucus in the following January or February is something else. Clearly, the straw poll does not furnish much good information on the actual state of the Republican Party, but only a snapshot of the most organized (or at least, enthusiastic) partisan operatives and activists.
Judging by these stats, the straw poll has become an embarrassment, not only being a poor predictor of success, but also having a 50% rating in highlighting some of the most crazy of Republican candidates (Pat Robertson, Phil Gramm, Michele Bachmann). Of course, the Republican Iowa Caucus isn’t much better, predicting the eventual president only once since 1980 (G. W. Bush) and the Republican nominee only twice (G. W. Bush in 2000, and Bob Dole in 1996).
Judging by these stats, it isn’t surprising that Republicans have cancelled the straw poll this cycle. Also judging by past performance, we can expect it to be unlikely that whoever wins the Republican Iowa Caucus will get the Republican presidential nomination, let alone come close to the White House.